【美國優質債】2021年6月基金評論

市場總覽:

由於6月份基本面情況改善和美國聯準會政策推動下,美國市場走高。

美國在偏向鷹派的聯邦公開市場委員會( FOMC) 會議之後,美國公債殖利率曲線 6 月趨於平緩;短天期殖利率走高,而中長天期殖利率則持續走低( 2 年期公債殖利率上升 11 個基點至 0.25% ,10 年期公債殖利率下降 13 個基點至 1.48%)。

美國投資級債利差收斂,在基本面改善的情況下連續第三個月收斂。

彭博巴克萊美國債券6月份利差收斂3個基點至77個基點,年初至今收斂15個基點。6月份上漲1.50%,年初至今下跌1.28%。

相較美國公債,6月份投資級公司債表現佳,其中通訊產業表現最好(90 bps),主權債(-16 bps)則表現較差。

相較美國公債,年初至今各產業表現皆領先,能源債(425 bps)、地方政府債(392 bps)領先,而主權債(36 bps)及超主權債(26 bps)則領先較少。

投資級債6月份新發行1,420億美元,年初至今發行量為9,770億美元,由於2020年受疫情和經濟活動封鎖使發行量創新高,去年基期較高,今年發行量下降29%,但是與其他年份相比,發行量仍高(較2019年增加44%)。

投資級債6月淨流入110億美元,年初至今共流入930億美元。

基金總覽:

6月份,基金在消費、通訊及融資公司的選債帶來最大貢獻,分別貢獻1個基點。反之,基金在銀行和經紀業務的曝險拖累表現,分別影響5個基點和2個基點。

年初至今,基金在天然氣配送和航空運輸的選債貢獻最大,分別貢獻了9個基點。反之,基金加碼銀行和政府擔保債券拖累表現,分別影響8個基點和3個基點。

未來展望:

•美國投資級債評價吸引力較先前低

−由於利差位於歷史上的較低水準,產業和債券選擇是現階段最重要的。

−強勁的經濟環境及貨幣寬鬆政策,使市場容易受到負面消息的影響,我們將繼續尋找機會。

• 企業槓桿仍高,但市場投資人跟隨聯準會的腳步投資

−基本面持續支撐總體市場,由於經濟數據和公司營收數據亮眼,我們預期經濟將持續改善。

−然而,投資級公司槓桿仍高,且可能會傾向保障股東報酬(股票買回、股利等等)而非減少債務。

−高流動性一直是利差收斂的一大主因,但經濟復甦和通膨可能在長時間內保持較高的水準,可能導致美國聯準會收回寬鬆政策。

• 投資級債供需均衡

−投資級債的需求已經跟上了供給的增加,且我們預計 2021 年第三季發行量將減少。

−產業和債券選擇是現階段最重要的。

−預計2021年投資級債估值將在區間內盤整,我們將策略性地調整配置。

 
This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 125 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1AR.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America.