摘要
- 面對當前不明朗環境，股息產生的持久收益更顯重要；在亞洲市場，股息一直是可靠的長期股票報酬來源。
- 然而，若資本出現深度回檔，持久收益無法提供足夠保障，因此，管理投資策略波動與恪守股息紀律同樣重要。
- 相對於捕捉市場時機，持續投資更能發揮複利優勢，而防守型分散配置則有助在市場回檔期間穩定投資組合。
隨著中東戰爭引發對能源供應、經濟外溢效應，以及央行政策看法分歧的憂慮，市場已進入波動加劇的時期。在此環境下，低波動策略的防守特性提供有效下行保障︰截至2026年3月，亞太區（日本除外）最低波動指數的表現領先亞洲整體市場2.6%，全球低波動指數的表現則領先全球整體市場2.0%。
當前市況導致投資者更難在收益、成長及投資組合韌性之間達到平衡。鑑於戰爭或觸發通膨回升，現金殖利率的不確定性日增，利率前景在市場定價開始預期政策放寬之際轉趨不明朗。無論利率下跌、不變或上升，股息作為持久收益來源的投資理據均更為充分。
股息：長期表現的關鍵支柱
配息率在亞洲市場一直是長期財富創造的核心支柱。
MSCI亞太區（日本除外）指數於2006年3月至2026年2月的報酬構成分析顯示，推動報酬的三大因素分別為獲利成長、估值倍數擴張或收縮引起的估值變化，以及股息。見圖1。
三大因素中，估值倍數波動劇烈，在各週期階段於擴張與收縮之間大幅波動，並可成為推動或拖累報酬的因素；盈利成長雖然更為穩定，但仍會受到週期性波動影響。另一方面，隨著時間推移，股息部分成為可靠且具穩定複利效應的總報酬來源。
圖1：MSCI所有國家亞太區（日本除外）指數總報酬構成分析
資料來源：瀚亞投資、MSCI指數、彭博，截至2026年2月27日
因此，系統化聚焦於具吸引及可持續配息率的公司的投資策略不僅旨在尋求收益，更能充分發揮亞洲最可靠總報酬來源之一的優勢。
話雖如此，若資本因市場大幅回檔而受到侵蝕，持久收益的作用亦會減弱。對於資本剛減少30%的投資人而者，6%的投資組合報酬作用有限。因此，相關策略的第二個層面——管理波動——與作為策略基礎的股息紀律同樣重要。
波動：為何管理下行風險較追逐上行潛力更為重要
投資者相當了解彌補虧損的數學原理。一隻股票下跌50%後，必須上升100%才能回本。見圖2。這種不對稱性——即累積虧損的影響遠超累積收益——正是管理波動對於長期財富創造至關重要的首要原因。
圖2：股票在拋售後需要以更大幅度上升才能回本
資料來源︰瀚亞投資。
然而，相對於簡單算術結果，這種報酬不對稱性所產生的實際影響更為深遠。以下對比值得投資者關注。
2001年6月1日至2026年3月20日期間，MSCI所有國家亞太區（日本除外）指數的累計報酬率約為351%。見圖3。假如從整段時期中剔除表現最差的五個交易日，累計報酬率將飆升至約597%，較原本報酬高約70%。相反，若投資者錯過表現最佳的五天，累計殖利率將降至約212%，較原本報酬低約40%。
圖3：亞太區（日本除外）市場在剔除最佳／最差五個交易日後的表現
資料來源︰資料來源︰瀚亞投資、MSCI指數、彭博，2026年3月20日
上述數據揭示了投資人難以迴避的事實：逾六千個交易日中，僅僅五個的少數極端交易日，便足以對長期投資結果構成重大影響。關鍵的是，表現最佳及最差的交易日往往集中在危機與復甦時期，因此極難穩定捕捉其發生時機。
核心問題並不在於相關交易日能否預測——因為其無法預測——而是在於投資者能否構建足以抵禦其衝擊的投資組合。從投資組合構建的角度來看，低波動策略在這一方面能夠發揮作用。
MSCI亞太區（日本除外）低波動指數在同一時期（2001年6月1日至2026年3月20日）的累計報酬率約827%，顯著領先大盤的351%，甚至跑贏市場剔除最差五個交易日後的表現。這一有力例證提醒投資者，即使在拋售時期，保持充分投資而不嘗試捕捉市場時機，亦能實現更佳長期報酬。當報酬表現更為平穩時，複利效應將發揮驚人作用。
透過防守型分散配置增強韌性
市場時刻充滿不確定性。市場焦點或許由關稅爭端、地緣政治緊張局勢及央行政策轉變主導，但市場波動卻始終存在。在此環境下，投資者的目標並非嘗試預測下一次衝擊，而是構建能抵禦衝擊的投資組合。
這凸顯了分散配置的重要性，其重點不僅在於涵蓋不同資產類別，更在於配置具真正防禦能力的股票。當市場迅速回撤且相關性上升之際，正是分散配置發揮關鍵作用的時刻，投資者將透過能穩定整體投資組合表現的配置獲利。
防守型策略的目標並非放棄成長，而是在參與長期股票報酬的同時，減低大幅回撤對投資行為及複利效應造成的負面影響。納入波動較低的收益型股票，有助平衡投資組合在不同市況下的表現，並在保留上行參與的前提下增強韌性。
歸根究底，防守型分散配置的目標簡單有力，就是協助投資者持續投資。在不明朗的大環境中，無論面對市場衝擊、拋售及復甦，持續投資始終是實現長期財富創造的最可靠途徑。
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