摘要
2026年開始，日本迎來不少正面消息並且帶動股市創高。首相高市早苗執政後，「高市經濟學」(Sanaenomics，結合高市Sanae與經濟學economics) 可望帶領日本成為結構性成長的經濟體，並且讓日股成功轉骨、邁入新常態。
Q. 日股會隨著政策經濟情勢如何變化？
瀚亞首席經濟學家 Ray Farris 認為，高市政府預計會將財政政策轉向溫和擴張，包括下調消費稅，並提供對國防及戰略產業的財政支持。目前日本經濟呈現健康狀態，預測2026年將有約1%的資本支出與出口帶動成長；而任何新的財政刺激措施都將進一步延長成長動能，預期2027年獲利預估將開始被上調。
在政策層面，高市推動其優先事項時(如：成長型投資、國防強化、勞動生產力改革、通膨政策、公司治理改革等)阻力大幅降低。這對投資人是正面訊號，預期有助於經濟成長與資產價格，同時未來日本的政策可預測性也明顯提高。
Q. 日股創高後，有泡沫風險嗎？
總結來說，除了政策利多支持，瀚亞投資在實體經濟與企業層面也看到許多正向因素，例如：實質薪資改善、企業盈餘強勁、公司治理改革持續深化。預期日本經濟擺脫通縮，或進入溫和通膨環境，企業具備成本轉嫁能力，毛利率改善空間大，預期有顯著潛在成長空間。
- 評價面：日本市場平均P/B約1.5倍，遠低於美國的4.3倍，也低於歐洲的1.9倍，整體估值仍具吸引力，日本股市仍處於「價格重估」初期，結構性改革與資本效率提升將是中長期驅動力。
- 資金面：日股受到內資與外資青睞，尤其在政治噪音退去後，力率與經濟立場能見度提升，日本央行態度略顯明確正面，待政策走向確立且開啟良性經濟循環，有望推進外資法人進場長期投資，散戶淨買入與開戶熱度也不減。
- 獲利面：根據高盛預期，2026與2027財年日本企業獲利將呈雙位數增長，公司基本面與獲利強勁，將支持日股長期估值重估，並且上調目標估值。
- 企業面：最新財報中，日本企業淨利率接近歷史高點，這也可能推動企業增加股票回購(buybacks)，同樣成為支撐日股的動力之一。
Q. 選擇瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金的投資理由？
瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金自2023年起連續三年橫掃台灣、新加坡、香港等海內外各項基金獎項認可，包括：2023年Smart智富台灣基金獎、2024年、2025年第27屆與第28屆傑出基金金鑽獎、2024年LSEG理柏台灣基金獎等大獎認可。(資料來源：2023年Smart智富台灣基金獎、第27屆與第28屆傑出基金金鑽獎、2024理柏台灣基金獎，時間日期：2023/1/1-2025/6/30)
資料來源：瀚亞投資整理，2026。
本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效，本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。
本基金強調「由下而上」的選股特色，鎖定持股約30~50檔，審慎瞄準具備潛能的個股，不受限於大盤指數，透過主動彈性操作，並且找出低估的標的，目標是創造超額報酬。
以瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金A(美元避險)短中長期績效表現有目共睹，在台灣核備的同類型基金(理柏環球分類-日本股票)的四分位排名來看，均為前四分之一；其績效表現亦優於同類型平均值。
資料來源：Lipper，基金績效截至2026/01/31, *本基金以美元與同類型平均採用理柏環球分類-日本股票在台核備境外同業主級別基金平均值比較。過去之績效亦不代表未來績效之保證。以原幣別呈現。
本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效，本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。
本基金經金融監督管理委員會核准或同意生效，惟不表示絕無風險。境外基金管理機構以往之績效不保證基金之最低投資收益；境外基金管理機構除盡善良管理人之注意義務外，不負責本基金之盈虧，亦不保證最低之收益，投資人申購前應詳閱基金公開說明書，並考慮是否適合本身之投資。就申購手續費屬後收型之T3級別，手續費雖可遞延收取，惟每年仍需支付1％的分銷費， 可能造成實際負擔費用增加。分銷費用反映於每日基金淨資產價值，為每年基金淨資產價值之1%(約每日0.00274%)。在原始申購日屆滿三年之次一營業日，T3級別自動免費轉換為相應的A級別。投資人申購手續費屬後收型之T3級別前，應向銷售機構確實瞭解前收與後收級別之費用差異。依主管機關之規定，對於高齡金融消費者及弱勢族群投資人，本公司於辦理基金銷售業務時，不主動介紹屬高風險之基金產品；且本公司於受理基金申購時，將審慎評估（包括但不限於）投資人之投資知識、投資經驗、財務狀況、生理狀態、教育與金融知識水準及社群關係等風險承受度評估項目，以有效評估辨識其風險承擔能力。因此為保障您的投資權益，建議您審慎評估您的投資風險承受度。本公司對有關高齡金融消費者重大權益義務變更，包括但不限於契約變更、撤銷、解除，鉅額資金或資產異常轉移等，將以電話、書面、或電子郵件等妥適之方式進行通知。此外，對於高齡金融消費者之特殊行為，亦採取關懷提問之方式，以提醒投資人注意交易風險，防範高齡金融消費者受詐騙。有關基金應負擔之費用（境外基金含分銷費用）已揭露於基金之公開說明書或投資人須知中，投資人可至下列網址查閱：基金資訊觀測站：http://www.fundclear.com.tw、公開資訊觀測站： https://mops.twse.com.tw、瀚亞證券投資信託股份有限公司: http://www.eastspring.com.tw或於本公司營業處所:台北市松智路1號4樓，電話:(02)8758-6699索取/查閱。瀚亞投信獨立經營管理。
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