摘要
總體經濟：成長不均、通膨加劇、政策收緊
戰爭引發的石油供應衝擊料將導致全球經濟成長收窄約0.5%至0.6%，而荷姆茲海峽持續實際關閉的時間越長，相關損失就越大。亞洲各地受影響的程度不一。由於存在能源缺口，加上機票價格上升及旅遊活動影響，旅遊業疲弱，印度、菲律賓及泰國受到最大衝擊。印度同時亦因海灣地區佔其出口相當比重而較易受到影響。
相比之下，中國、韓國及台灣的抗禦力似乎較強。憑藉龐大石油儲備、替代能源供應以及對電動車與可再生能源技術的強勁需求，中國展現較強韌性。韓國及台灣則因人工智慧基建投資帶動半導體出口需求強勁而得到緩衝。美國終端用戶科技企業公司的指引預期相關出口將持續高速成長。亞洲市場受全球因素影響的程度各異，導致亞洲各盈利成長前景顯著分化。
與此同時，能源價格上升的影響正傳導至更廣泛的亞洲通膨，而補貼僅能延緩通膨壓力，若能源衝擊持續，通膨壓力料將加劇。通膨風險上升已促使全球貨幣政策由放寬轉向收緊，除非能源供應受阻的局面緩和，以及聯準會在今年稍後落實紓困政策，否則亞洲將面臨進一步升息壓力。
資產配置：採取偏向風險資產的謹慎戰術性部署，以應對伊朗相關風險
地緣政治局勢仍然高度緊張，但全面採取防守型策略或會錯失投資機會。未來三個月，我們繼續謹慎看好全球股票，而考慮到能源風險，我們偏好美國多於歐洲，同時偏好估值吸引的個別新興市場及亞洲市場。憑藉能源及商品儲備，中國在伊朗戰爭中相對受惠，而韓國則受惠於人工智慧帶動的資本開支熱潮。
考慮到通膨上行風險，我們對美國政府債券維持中性立場。美國信貸利差仍窄，但按收益率計算，其估值似乎更為吸引。因此，我們繼續偏好美國高非投資等級債券多於投資級別債券。我們亦繼續戰術性看好新興市場硬貨幣主權債券，因相關債券的收益吸引，並受惠於投資者對高收益硬貨幣資產的強勁需求。
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