【收益優化】2021年1月基金評論

市場現況:

對於2021年的投資市場來說,這是一個好壞參半的開端,隨著一些動盪的跡象開始出現,資產價格也跟著波動。石油和白銀等大宗商品表現良好,前者主要是因為沙烏地阿拉伯宣佈在未來幾個月內減產。儘管由於社交媒體影響了散戶投資者的購買行為,某些特定公司的股票市值出現了大幅上漲,但已開發股市普遍陷入停滯。

至於固定收益市場,因美國公債、英國公債和德國公債的殖利率率上升(價格下跌),一些投資者在長天期美國公債(15年或以上到期)損失了3%,原因是人們預期由於民主黨現在控制參議院而實施的更大規模的財政刺激措施可能導致通貨膨脹率上升。經濟學家估計,未來幾個月美國可能會通過9000億美元的財政刺激方案,這將使2021年GDP的增長率來到1.5%而2022年則為0.5%。投資級公司債,尤其是美國公司債,由於存續期間的原因而遭受損失,但債券利差在一個月內基本持平。高收益債券受益於1月上半月的樂觀情緒,然此後人們對疫苗推出的擔憂開始使樂觀情緒下降。

在疲弱的2020年之後,由於美國利率曲線趨於陡峭,美元在本月表現更好轉。英鎊兌美元和歐元也表現強勁,可以說是得益於聖誕節期間達成的英國脫歐協議以及英國目前的疫苗接種速度。新興市場今年開局較為疲軟,這主要是由於美國利率曲線趨於陡峭和美元走強。

儘管不確定性和一些資產的波動性有所回升,基金本月仍取得了正績效的表現。績效增長的主要動力是基金在利率(縮短存續期間)上的謹慎定位,尤其是在美國公債方面。基金對債券和通脹相關債券的曝險增加了絕對和相對表現。而股票只占基金的4%,對績效產生了很小的負貢獻。

投組調整:

今年以來,基金在交易方面一直表現活躍,因為估值昂貴,我們希望削減債券風險,同時力求增加可能落後補漲,目前更有吸引力的資產(較便宜)。

在約40%的投資組合中,投資級債是我們最大的部位,但是我們出售了一些美元和英鎊的公司債券,轉而使用歐元計價的票據,因為後者更便宜。這些拋售包括可口可樂、百事可樂和康卡斯特發行的債券。

就我們的投資組合期存續期間2.6年(本月略有上升)而言,我們持續認為承擔過多的利率風險既昂貴又冒險。我們在2020年的短存續期間部位則相當穩定。就貨幣而言,由於我們認為歐洲仍面臨結構性問題,因此我們相對於美元資產仍偏愛歐元資產。美國經濟處於更好的反彈位置(這也要歸功於更積極的財政刺激措施),但也因此給美國公債殖利率帶來了更大壓力。

在股票方面,我們平倉了表現良好的蘇格蘭南方能源公司股票。另一方面,我們已經添加了兩隻絕對和相對價值(與債券相比)都具有吸引力的股票:羅氏和諾華。

在增加了阿曼、象牙海岸、墨西哥和羅馬尼亞發行的新興市場政府債券後,我們的政府債券曝險在一個月內有所增加。由於我們認為新興市場債的復甦速度相對於投資級債而言較為落後,因此我們也平倉了基金裡新興市場信用違約交換指數中的空頭部位。儘管義大利面臨另一場政治危機,但由於估值仍然很高,本月我們也平倉了剩餘的義大利政府債券。

對於本基金來說,這是一個良好的開端,因為我們受益於完善的減持利率風險措施,同時從債券選擇中獲得了正收益。如上所述,我們還將部分政府債券風險從已開發市場轉移到了新興市場,因為新興市場在未來幾個月內可能會保持一些有吸引力的估值。

 
This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 125 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1AR.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America.