【亞洲高收益債券】2021年6月基金評論

市場總覽:

亞洲美元高收益債券市場6月走弱,主要是受到市場負面訊息流通導致部分行業的風險偏好下降,在此環境下,摩根亞洲高收益債指數下跌1.25%。

6月份,美國殖利率在 6 月 FOMC會議後經歷波動,因美國聯準會 (FED) 官員表示將提前對升息的預測,預計2023年底前將升息兩碼。聯準會更加鷹派的談話使短期美國公債殖利率上升。儘管如此,由於美國經濟數據喜憂參半,美國長期公債殖利率走低。即使在5 月通膨報告顯示美國消費者價格漲幅高於預期之後,殖利率仍持續走低,表示市場已經相信聯準會的發言,即物價上漲為暫時性的。對於未來殖利率曲線走向的分歧導致十年期美國公債殖利率下降 13 個基點至 1.47%,而二年期殖利率上升 11 個基點。

儘管美國利率環境良好,但亞洲美元債券市場的投資者仍保持謹慎情緒。亞洲高收益市場尤其受到中國房地產開發商恆大負面消息的影響,因傳聞中國政府針對恆大集團與盛京銀行(恆大為其最大股東)之間的金融業務往來展開調查,其債券價格走弱。

負面情緒隨後蔓延到中國其他高收益房地產產業,即使中國恆大堅持去槓桿的承諾,並於 6 月履行了其美元債務償還的義務。這仍導致本月該產業表現明顯不佳,抵消了其他市場(如香港和印度)的收益。

除中國高收益房地產板塊外,高收益主權債券也在這個月由斯里蘭卡領跌。由於市場重新關注其外部融資能力,儘管這並沒有新的重大進展,斯里蘭卡主權國家回吐了今年的部分漲幅。巴基斯坦主權國家也表現疲軟。

然而,儘管亞洲經濟成長出現放緩現象及不平衡性,總體經濟狀況仍保持穩定。強勁的外部需求持續支撐出口,但亞洲各國新冠疫情導致不同程度的封鎖措施,從而導致經濟活動放緩。然而,亞洲各地皆加快疫苗接種進程,加上額外的財政支持,皆有助於緩解新一波疫情帶來的經濟影響擔憂。

基金總覽:

6月份,本基金表現不佳主因加碼中國高收益房地產,由於對境內融資條件的收緊對流動性的影響擔憂,拖累整體市場表現。然而,由於基金加碼中國華融,本月價格回升,因此產業所造成的負面影響被中國華融的收益抵消。此外,加碼斯里蘭卡、減碼香港債券也影響基金表現,不過印尼及馬來西亞債券帶來的收益幫忙緩衝了負面影響。

年初至今,本基金表現落後基準指標。在中國政府專注於降低槓桿比率的背景下,中國信貸條件的收緊,導致投資者對於負面新聞更加敏感。在此背景下,6月份中國恆大的大幅拋售加劇市場恐慌情緒,本基金加碼中國房地產板塊是主要影響因素。對於中國政府對國有企業的支持,使得部分中國地方政府債券發行者承壓。然而,在中國以外,高收益債券發行者普遍表現良好,尤其是高收益主權債券。基金因此受益於加碼斯里蘭卡債券,該國獲得流動性額度和新貸款之後,大幅反彈。菲律賓和印尼的選債也有助於縮小年初至今表現不佳的情況。

未來展望:

在上半年亞洲美元債市面臨許多挑戰之後,隨著我們進入 2021 年下半年的市場,一些不確定性可能會持續;全球經濟復甦步伐加快與通膨擔憂可能會持續存在,進而決定主要央行撤回財政支持的速度。在亞洲,新冠疫情重起將增加復甦進程的複雜性,而中國政府持續專注於控制槓桿,將可能會持續導致由特殊事件引發的市場波動。

儘管存在這些挑戰,我們認為亞洲債券市場並不全是厄運。全球復甦將可持續支持亞洲經濟體,並為亞洲發行人提供具有建設性的整體環境。與此同時,雖然經濟狀況的改善,可能會因聯準會縮減購債而受影響,但我們認為不太可能導致再一次縮減恐慌的拋售,因為市場已經對即將到來的行動有所預期,且新冠疫情重起帶來的不確定性也可能限制對升息的預期。

我們認為中國政府將持續在取得市場紀律與避免系統性危機之中取得平衡。這部分反映在最近降低存款準備金率的措施上,以確保金融體系流動性充足。在房地產領域,更嚴格的融資限制將使中國房地產開發商的債務狀況有所改善,但仍然導致該產業市場情緒在短期內轉弱,尤其是對於較低信評債券。我們將需要密切關注2021年下半年的融資狀況,因為如果一些公司無法為2022 年到期的債券再融資,他們可能會陷入困境。近期我們將尋求增加一些穩定性較高的非房地產板塊的債券,作為持續產生穩定收益的方法。

六月,在近期美國公債殖利率回落的背景下,我們繼續降低存續期間;鑑於我們認為美國公債曲線已經消化了美國許多利多消息,但鑑於美國在經濟上的實力,我們認為大幅下降的空間有限。

 
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