【亞洲債券】2021年11月基金評論

市場總覽:

摩根大通亞洲公司債指數顯示,亞洲美元債券在連續兩個月下跌後於11月上漲0.24%。正報酬主要歸因於美國利率下降以及應計收入。然而,市場的上漲部分受到中國房地產產業持續拋售壓力的拖累。

美國公債(UST)殖利率在本月初最初處於上升軌道,因通膨壓力激增而加速,這使美國消費者價格指數(CPI)在10月份達到了年增6.2%的三年高點。為應對通脹飆升,聯準會更多委員贊同加快減少貨幣刺激措施。然而,當歐洲第四波COVID-19疫情沒有減弱的跡象時,美國公債殖利率開始減緩上升的步調。隨著有關最近發現的Omicron病毒株的相關報告在本月底開始出現,債券也上漲。整體而言,11月兩年期美國公債殖利率攀升7個基點至0.57%,而十年期國債收益率下降11個基點至1.44%。

然而,在亞洲的美元公司債市,投資者的焦點仍然是中國房地產行業的持續動盪。行業內有關評級下調和負面信用事件的持續消息嚴重影響了投資者情緒,引發了從B評級蔓延到BB評級、以及選擇性的投資等級債的拋售。

然而,由於政策放寬的跡象提振了投資人的信心,該產業在月中出現了短暫的穩定。據報導,中國金融監管機構將允許「優質」開發商恢復發行住房抵押貸款證券(ABS)。與此同時,成都成為中國第一個放鬆房地產行業限制的城市,其地方房管部門上個月宣布將加快房屋銷售和房地產貸款的審批,同時放寬對預售資金使用的限制。

中國人民銀行(PBOC)在其最新的季度貨幣政策報告中暗示可能會採取更多支持性貨幣政策,刪除了之前報告中引用的幾個關鍵短語,如「控制貨幣供應量」和其他表明的政策限制。中國人民銀行還發布了一份報告,顯示10月份中國個人抵押貸款月增41%至3,480億人民幣,表明近期抵押貸款政策的微調產生正面影響。

儘管有這些積極的政策發展,但中國房地產行業在本月仍是亞洲美元公司債市場的落後者,該行業跌幅超過3%。

本月其他落後者包括高收益主權債券和金屬和礦業的公司債,由於擔心Omicron的出現會阻礙成長復甦,同時降低石油和大宗商品的價格,這些債券價格下跌。

相比之下,非房地產投資級公司表現良好,科技、媒體和電信(TMT)公司債表現優異,因為它們的存續期間更多地受益於美國公債殖利率曲線的趨平。

基金總覽:

本月至今 - 鑑於中國高收益房地產產業持續表現不佳,本基金對該產業的增持對本基金的表現構成壓力。特別是本基金增持了特定的B評級房地產標的是本月的主要虧損因素,且負面的盈利影響了本基金所挑選的中國金融產業公司債的收益,該基金受益於對中國華融的增持。這家資產管理公司在與戰略投資者簽署注資協議和監管機構批准國內債券發行的消息推動下,於本月上漲。此外,該基金通過持續加碼金融和科技、媒體和電信(TMT)的也增加了相對報酬。

年初至今 - 自年初以來,亞洲美元公司債市場經歷了充滿挑戰的市場環境。今年第一季度,美國利率飆升令市場的表現承壓。此外,中國對控制槓桿和各行業監管收緊的不懈關注也引發了受政府政策影響的行業和發行人的不確定性。在此背景下,鑑於市場表現參差不齊,本基金在中國的公司債的部位成為影響相對表現的主要因素。具體而言,由於過去幾個月中國恆大的大幅拋售加劇了市場擔憂,本基金對中國高收益房地產行業的證券選擇和增持是一個關鍵拖累。本基金的整體久期增持也產生了負面影響,儘管自4月以來美國公債殖利率的下降減輕了負面影響。儘管如此,該基金在中國以外高收益領域的增持整體表現良好。特別是,該基金增持菲律賓公司債以及印尼房地產公司債,對相對報酬作出了正面貢獻。

未來展望:

金融市場的波動似乎將在短期內持續存在,因為決策者繼續努力在保持經濟成長和抑制通膨壓力之間取得適當的平衡。在花了幾個月的時間辯論最近的通膨飆升主要為暫時性之後,鮑威爾最近告訴美國國會,現在「可能是放棄這個形容詞的好時機」。在參議院銀行委員會的證詞中,美聯儲主席還表示,央行將考慮加快縮減債券購買規模。另一方面,鮑威爾強調,包括美聯儲在內的大多數預測者繼續預計未來一年價格壓力將消退。

與此同時,Omicron已成為阻礙全球經濟成長的風險。儘管關於新病毒株的許多問題仍未得到解答,包括其傳染性和嚴重性,但我們認為對經濟成長的影響可能不如今年早些時候達美航空發生的負面影響要小,因為接種疫苗的人口比例要高得多,主要關注政府具針對性的遏制措施,以及私營部門對疫情環境的適應。

 
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