【美高收債】2020年11月基金評論

市場總覽:

11月份,美國市場重啟復甦。美國參議院將由共和黨主導,將與總統大選獲得勝利的民主黨分治。同時,市場對於新冠疫苗的研發進展抱持樂觀態度。

110月份,美國公債殖利率上升後,11月份,美國公債殖利率則回落。10年期公債殖利率下降4個基點至0.84%,30年期公債殖利率下降7個基點至1.58%。

1美國高收益債市11月份利差收斂,由於疫苗研發進展順利,且美國大選結果明朗化。

美國高收益債市11月份上漲4.01%,年初至今漲幅4.09%;利差收斂99個基點至435個基點,接近2月疫情爆發前與經濟封鎖前的水準。

 

11月份,風險偏好的市場環境有利較低評級高收益債券表現。CCC評級債券年初至今報酬仍落後,然而B評級債券報酬率本月份已由負翻正。

11月份:BB 3.61%;B 3.45%;CCC及以下 7.47%

年初至今:BB 6.96%;B 1.92%;CCC及以下 -1.20%

債券發行量在11月份持續攀升,11月份高收益債總發行量330億美元,年初至今總發行量達4,030億美元,年增率67%。11月份,資金淨流入60億美元。

基金總覽:

11月,基金在媒體公司部位帶來最大正貢獻,貢獻10個基點。

此外,基金加碼化學業,也帶來正貢獻,貢獻6個基點。

相反地,基金在油田設備與服務及電影娛樂公司的選債,為主要影響基金報酬的因素,各影響4個基點。

年初至今,基金在通訊服務及油田設備、服務的選債帶來最大正貢獻,分別貢獻35和26個基點。

相反地,基金在金融服務及博弈產業的選債則影響基金表現,分別影響42和36個基點。

未來展望:

嚴謹的風險管理為高收益債基金績效優於市場的主因,團隊持續專注產業和個別債券的挑選。

新冠肺炎的不確定性為經濟帶來前所未有的衝擊,然而,由於經濟重啟,我們預期主要經濟體將繼續改善。

全球低利率環境為美國高收益債提供支撐。

我們相信2020年財務槓桿比率將增加,然而流動性應會保持充足,使發行公司在經濟改善中具備足夠資金。

受疫情影響而擴大的利差持續收斂,但由於高收益債券品質持續改善,未來仍有收斂空間。

 
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