【美高收債】2020年10月基金評論

市場總覽:

10月份,美國市場震盪,由於全球新冠疫情確診人數持續增加,且對美國大選前推出財政刺激計畫的期待下降。

10月份,中長天期與長天期美國公債殖利率上升,2年期公債殖利率上升1個基點至0.14%,10年期公債殖利率上升19個基點至0.88%,30年期公債殖利率上升19個基點至1.65%。

美國高收益債市10月份溫和回升,年初至今報酬重回正值。

美國高收益指數10月份上漲0.45%,年初至今漲幅0.07%;利差收斂8個基點至534個基點。

各評級債券10月份表現佳,BB級債券於今年領漲。

10月份:BB 0.50%;B 0.48%;CCC及以下的 0.28%

年初至今:BB 3.24%;B -1.47%;CCC及以下的 -8.07%

債券發行量在10月份持續攀升,10月份高收益債總發行量320億美元,年初至今總發行量達3,680億美元,年增率78%。10月資金淨流入20億美元。

基金總覽:

10月份,基金在天然氣運輸的選債帶來最大正貢獻,貢獻4個基點。

此外,基金減碼電影及娛樂產業,帶來第二大正貢獻,貢獻3個基點。

相反地,基金在醫療器材及博弈公司的選債拖累績效,分別影響3和2個基點。

年初至今,基金加碼通訊、服務業及其選債帶來最大正貢獻,貢獻33個基點。

此外,基金在油田設備與服務業的選債,帶來第二大正貢獻,貢獻29個基點。

相反地,基金在投資/金融服務及博弈產業的選債影響基金表現,分別影響41和36個基點。 基金在服務業及航空運輸的選債帶來正貢獻,各貢獻4個基點。

基金在服務業及航空運輸的選債帶來正貢獻,各貢獻4個基點。

未來展望:

嚴謹的風控為高收益債券基金績效優於市場的主要原因,持續專注產業和個別債券的選擇。

新冠肺炎的不確定性為經濟帶來前所未有的衝擊,然而,由於經濟重啟,我們預期主要經濟體將繼續改善。

聯準會對公司債市場的支持及全球低利率環境都為美國高收益債提供支撐。

我們相信2020年盈餘將大幅下降,且財務槓桿比率增加,然而流動性應會保持充足,使發行公司在經濟改善的2021年中有足夠資金。

我們上調對墮落天使和違約率的前景預估。

從長期平均來看,利差幅度仍大,未來仍有收斂空間。

 
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