【美國優質債】2021年1月基金評論

市場總覽:

美國市場今年由高波動度及表現分歧開啟新的一年。Reddit等平台的散戶投資者的大量湧入影響部份市場表現;但是,疫苗推出和財政刺激措施的正面影響仍保持不變。

美國中長期公債殖利率持續攀升; 10年期公債殖利率上升18個基點至1.11%,而30年期公債殖利率上升22個基點至1.87%。

1月份投資級債市場利差持平,但由於市場繼續對於通膨的預期,美國公債利率彈升,導致投資級債市下跌。

彭博巴克萊美國債券指數1月份超額報酬6個基點,利差維持在92 bps。然而,由於美國公債遭到拋售,該指數下跌1.19%。

1月份,各產業超額報酬表現不一;以地方政府債(140 bps)最高,其次是REITs (52 bps),通訊及科技業落後,兩者的超額報酬為-25 bps。

投資級債市場1月新發行$ 1,850億,高於2019年1月$ 1,720億,同時,是自9月以來最高金額。

投資級債券市在1月持續流入新資金250億美元。

基金總覽:

1月份,基金在航空運輸和醫療服務的選債貢獻最大,分別貢獻4個和2個基點。

另外,基金在REITs和銀行業的選債則拖累表現,分別影響2個和1個基點。

未來展望:

在最近的利差收斂後,我們認為美國投資級債的估值吸引力下降。

− 許多刺激方案已於年底到期,未來政策空間可能有限。

− 基本面仍支撐市場,我們認為未來市場可能會有更好的表現。

− 在這樣的環境下,我們認為產業和債券選擇仍是重要的。

我們持續在10年期公債和30年期公債的曲線中看到機會。

− 企業債券曲線的長端相對於短端陡峭。

− 長天期債券的外國需求不斷增加,我們預計其發行量至2021年將減少。

新冠疫情仍是市場最大風險。

− 儘管經濟有所改善,但我們近期仍看到部份裁員的消息。

− 如果經濟回復到常態的時間超出市場預期,我們預計企業將可能被降評,尤其是小型企業;大型企業則仍保持獲利,但我們預計會有更多的裁員。

 
This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 125 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1AR.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America.