【美國優質債】2020年12月基金評論

市場總覽:

受惠於新冠疫苗的正面消息及美國國會通過新一輪財政刺激方案,12月份,美國市場延續漲勢。

由於市場對於2021年通膨預期,中長天期公債殖利率微幅上升,10年期公債殖利率上升9個基點至0.93%,30年期公債殖利率上升7個基點至1.65%。

12月份,受惠於新冠疫苗的進展及財政刺激政策,美國投資級債市利差持續收斂。

12月份,彭博巴克萊美國信用債指數超額報酬79個基點(相較政府公債),利差收斂8個基點至92點,2020年利差僅微幅擴張2個基點。

12月份,各產業皆有超額報酬(相較政府公債),金融債(257bps)和能源債(205bps)表現佳,超主權債(2bps)及準主權(7bps)表現落後。2020年,能源債表現落後(-6.45%),科技產業表現佳(1.43%)。

12月份,主要受到聖誕假期,交易量清淡影響,投資級債新發行量370億美元,儘管如此,2020年供給量仍創新高(2.1兆美元),高於2017年前高(6,340億美元)。

市場資金仍持續流入投資級債,12月份流入270億美元,年初至今流入1,260億美元。

基金總覽:

12月份,基金航空運輸的選債及加碼天然氣運送公司為績效帶來正貢獻,分別貢獻5和3個基點。

另外,基金在電子整合及無線通訊公司的挑選則拖累績效,分別影響4和1個基點。

年初至今,基金在銀行業曝險及減碼能源債帶來最大正貢獻,分別為82個基點與22個基點。

相反地,基金加碼航空運輸公司則影響基金報酬,影響12個基點。同時,基金在電子整合公司的挑選,也是影響基金表現的主因,影響8個基點。

未來展望:

由於近期利差持續收斂,我們認為估值在部分美國投資級債市場的吸引力下降。

− 此外,部分刺激計畫將在年底到期,政策刺激的空間較低。

− 我們認為基本面將持續改善,支撐市場表現。

− 在此市場環境下,我們認為產業和公司的挑選非常重要。

在10年期公債與30年期公債的殖利率曲線中,我們看到更多投資機會。

− 長天期債券需求增加,預期2021年發債量下降,技術面有利其表現。

新冠疫情仍是市場最大風險。

− 雖然經濟持續改善,仍有部分大型企業裁員。

− 如果經濟復甦放緩,我們預期小型企業可能受到影響;大型企業則可維持盈餘狀態,但仍可能有裁員舉措。

 
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