【美國優質債】2020年11月基金評論

市場總覽:

11月份,美國市場重啟復甦。美國參議院將由共和黨主導,將與總統大選獲得勝利的民主黨分治。同時,市場對於新冠疫苗的研發進展抱持樂觀態度。

10月份,美國公債殖利率上升後,11月份,美國公債殖利率則回落。10年期公債殖利率下降4個基點至0.84%,30年期公債殖利率下降7個基點至1.58%。本月份,投資級債受惠於全球經濟改善與需求持續增加拉抬,利差收斂。

11月份,彭博巴克萊美國信用債市超額報酬211個基點(相較政府公債),利差收斂19個基點至100基點,接近2月疫情爆發前與經濟封鎖前的水準。本月份報酬2.55%,年初至今8.85%。

各產業皆有超額報酬(相較政府公債),能源債(400bps)和金融公司(390bps)為主要正貢獻,超主權債(9bps)及準主權(46bps)次之。

11月份,投資級債新發行量1,220億美元,年初至今總發行量達2兆650億美元,2019年全年發行量為1兆2,970億美元。本月份,投資級債市淨流出150億美元。

基金總覽:

11月份,基金在消費/商業/租賃金融及製藥業的選債為績效帶來正貢獻,各貢獻4個基點。

另外,基金在美國公債的部位,為主要影響基金表現的因素,各影響2個基點。

年初至今,基金在銀行業曝險及減碼能源債帶來最大正貢獻,分別為80個基點與22個基點。

相反地,基金加碼航空運輸公司則影響基金報酬,影響17個基點。同時,基金在油田設備與服務業的選債,也是影響基金表現的原因,影響6個基點。

未來展望:

由於近期利差持續收斂,我們認為估值在部分美國投資級債市場的吸引力下降。

? 此外,部分刺激計畫將在年底到期,兩黨尚未達成新一輪刺激計畫協議將是可能風險。

? 基本面持續改善,支撐市場表現,我們認為基本面將持續改善。

? 在此市場環境下,我們認為產業和公司的挑選非常重要。

在10年期公債與30年期公債的殖利率曲線中,我們看到更多投資機會。

? 長天期債券需求增加,預期2021年發債量下降。

新冠疫情仍是市場最大風險。

? 雖然經濟持續改善,仍有部分大型企業裁員。

? 如果經濟復甦放緩,我們預期小型企業可能受到影響;大型企業則可維持盈餘狀態,但仍可能有裁員舉措。

 
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