【美國優質債】2020年10月基金評論

市場總覽:

10月份,美國市場震盪,由於全球新冠疫情確診人數持續增加,且對美國大選前推出財政刺激計畫的期待下降。

10月份,美國投資級債利差溫和收斂。投資級債供給幅度持穩,同時需求大幅增加。

10月份,中長天期與長天期美國公債殖利率上升,2年期公債殖利率上升1個基點至0.14%,10年期公債殖利率上升19個基點至0.88%,30年期公債殖利率上升19個基點至1.65%。

彭博巴克萊美國債券指數10月份有90個基點的超額報酬(相較政府公債),利差收斂10個基點至119基點,2020年初為90個基點,3月達到最高峰341個基點。

10月份下降0.22%;而年初至今報酬+6.15%。

10月份,多數產業為正超額報酬(相較政府公債),金融公司(205bps)和保險公司(156bps)為主要正貢獻,反之,當地主權債(-21bps)和超主權債(5bps)表現落後。年初至今,超主權債表現維持領先(-7bps),銀行債排名第二(-62bps),而能源債(-1,186bps)及準主權(-690bps)表現落後 。

10月份投資級債的發行量下降,新發債總數為1080億美元,與2019年10月相當,使年初至今總發行量達1,943億美元,而2019年全年發行量為1,297億美元。

10月份投資級債市場資金持續淨流入,為160億美元。

基金總覽:

10月份,基金在天然氣運輸與通訊服務業的選債為績效帶來主要正貢獻,分別貢獻3個基點與2個基點。

相反地,基金在航空運輸與電力配送的選債為主要拖累者,各影響2個基點。

年初至今,基金在銀行配置及加碼政府公債帶來最大正貢獻,分別貢獻80個基點與22個基點。

相反地,基金加碼航空運輸及其選債影響基金報酬,影響18個基點。

此外,基金在油田設備與服務業的選債,為第二大影響基金報酬的非現金因素,影響7個基點。

未來展望:

我們認為估值在部分美國投資級債市場具吸引力。

− 基本面開始好轉,且我們認為有更多進步空間。

− 預期初級市場發債量下降,可能沒有足夠的債券滿足投資人需求。

在10年期公債與30年期公債的殖利率曲線中,我們看到更多投資機會。

− 美國聯準會持續購買短天期債券,且公司債的殖利率曲線變陡峭。

− 我們看到BBB級債券的投資機會浮現。

聯準會保持在市場中的主導地位,我們預期聯準會將持續買進更多債券。

− 在其他經濟環境仍不佳的地區,預期將持續買入債券。

新冠疫情仍是市場最大的風險。

− 雖然經濟持續改善,仍有許多大型企業裁員。

− 如果經濟復甦放緩,我們預期小型企業可能破產。大型企業可能維持盈餘狀態,但可能有裁員舉措。

 
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