【入息】2021年11月基金評論

市場現況:

隨著新型變種病毒Omicron毒株的發現,且其可能更具傳染性,並對現有疫苗具有更強抵抗力,拖累全球股市大幅下跌。投資者越來越擔心進一步的限制措施將可能影響全球經濟發展,投資者風險偏好消失,進而導致旅遊和銀行等對經濟敏感的股票下跌。

與此同時,無風險資產需求成長,包括日圓和主流政府債券。

由於本月早些時候強勁的企業盈利、進一步放鬆的旅行限制以及美國1兆美元基礎建設法案的通過,激勵各種指數表現創下歷史新高,因此後期拋售也顯現了投資者情緒的重大變化。

在Omicron變種病毒的發現引起廣泛拋售前,股價即因歐洲新冠疫情病例增加開始下跌,回吐大多數市場報酬。其中跌幅最大的是新興市場,尤其是阿根廷和俄羅斯,以及香港和西班牙。少數上漲的市場包括美國納斯達克市場和台灣。以產業來看,跌幅主要來自受到各國重啟限制措施影響的旅遊類股、石油和天然氣以及金融類股。另一方面,科技股表現上揚。

隨著投資者風險偏好減弱,一些固定收益市場上漲,主要由長天期主流政府公債所帶動,其中包括英國金邊債券、德國政府公債、其他歐洲債券和美國公債。政府公債除了被視為避風港外,也受惠於投資者的結論,即儘管通貨膨脹率上升,但如果Omicron變種病毒減緩經濟成長,央行將無法提高利率。

然而,月底美國聯準會主席立場變得更加鷹派,接受了通膨可能不是暫時性現象的說法,且資產購買計劃的退出可能須比過往想像中更快,也為美國短期公債帶來下行壓力。

風險偏好的消失令新興市場政府債券和企業債券承壓。高收益債券跌幅超過投資級債券。

大宗商品市場中,由於經濟復甦展望更加不明朗,油價大幅下跌。

貨幣市場方面,英國和歐洲央行央行可能不會升息,導致英鎊和歐元相對於美元大幅下跌。不過最大的贏家是日元。

該基金報酬持平,股票的損失被政府債券的收益所抵消。相對於美元和日元,表現較弱的歐元激勵了美國和日本的持股報酬。這也意味著我們的對沖活動(基金的70%必須持有或避險歐元)拖累表現,因為我們對沖了一些強勢貨幣,主要為美元。

在我們持有的股票中,儘管受到匯率影響,歐洲銀行價值仍最高,亞洲和日本股票則下跌。在美元升值的幫助下,股票價值增加。儘管當地財務狀況有所下降,但我們在美國的其他資訊技術等持股表現上漲。

政府債券為主要貢獻,我們長期美國公債中的部位在美元影響下仍價格上漲。葡萄牙債券及公司債券也有所幫助。

新興市場政府債券表現則]喜憂參半,巴西和智利的債券增值,而南非、哥倫比亞和墨西哥價格下跌。

部位調整:

現在談論Omicron變種病毒的影響還為時過早。儘管過去我們有可能處理各種形式的冠狀病毒,但我們尚不知道這種新毒株是否會對目前為止開發的疫苗產生抗藥性。也有可能Omicron可能沒有人們擔心的那麼糟糕。

在我們獲得更多資訊之前,我們不傾向於改變我們的風險平衡,我們也沒有對投資組合進行任何重大改變。我們略微加碼股票,同時持有大量長期政府債券和現金。在我們看來,此將在經濟成長停滯的情況下提供潛在的多元收益機會,同時能夠對潛在投資機會做出反應。

 
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