摘要
- 亞洲各國央行在通膨放緩及實際殖利率處於高點的支持下放寬貨幣政策，研判將有利於亞洲債券市場。
- 我們持續看好美元及當地貨幣存續期，並尋求在利率急升時延長存續期。
- 由於關稅導致利潤率受壓，信貸挑選更顯重要，但節省成本及提高效率的措施有助於減低影響。
隨著經濟進入週期後期格局，加上關稅摩擦對貿易及投資造成壓力，全球經濟增長料將持續放緩。預計包括亞洲及新興市場在內的主要經濟體將維持寬鬆貨幣政策，以抵禦相關不利因素。瀚亞新加坡固定收益主管Danny Tan認為，亞洲各國央行在通膨放緩及實際殖利率處於高點的支持下放寬貨幣政策，研判將有利於亞洲債券市場。此外，美國聯準會在9月及10月降息，並預計將在未來進一步放寬政策，為亞洲及新興市場央行提供放寬政策的空間，而不會引發貨幣波動。
圖1：亞洲及新興市場的實際政策利率仍然處於高點
資料來源：瀚亞投資(新加坡)有限公司、彭博，2025年9月。
亞洲及新興市場信貸利差處於多年來最狹窄水平。然而，按歷史標準衡量，總報酬率仍然合理，有望支撐投資者需求。亞洲方面，由於債券供應規模不足（尤其是中國債券），技術因素料將在2026年保持強勁，有利於亞洲信貸利差。市場憂慮已開發市場及新興市場施行慷慨財政政策及政府債務增加，導致各期限債券的期限溢價上調，債券估值因此改善。我們持續看好美元及當地貨幣存續期，並尋求在利率急升時延長存續期。我們亦看好交叉貨幣基差的投資機會（例如買入非美元債券，並將計價貨幣其避險至美元，以配合美元投資組合）。此策略能夠提高收益、增加投資組合多樣性及降低波動。2026年，對聯準會進一步放寬政策的預期轉變亦可能引發利差波動。我們將保持靈活，尋找把握這種波動帶來的投資機會。
圖2：新興市場殖利率仍然合理
資料來源：瀚亞投資(新加坡)有限公司、彭博，2025年10月。摩根大通新興市場環球多元混和債券指數殖利率。
瀚亞新加坡投資組合經理Rong Ren Goh認為，亞洲個別非投資等級債券市場存在投資機會。他認為，市場低估了國內投資者參與度結構性上升對降低相關債券市場波動的作用，尤其是印尼及印度。與此同時，澳洲信貸市場的利差吸引，信貸曲線亦更加陡峭。我們亦關注日本政府債券殖利率曲線，其斜度遠高於部分市場，並提供可觀的經避險收益。
我們預計美元將繼續走弱，因為其套利優勢正在消失，有利於非美元貨幣。新興市場貨幣近期的整固亦為其再次升值奠定基礎，因此我們傾向持有美元短倉。與此同時，預計人民幣（美元兌人民幣）將保持穩定或輕微下跌，有助穩定亞洲貨幣。新興市場債券方面，瀚亞新加坡投資組合經理Eric Fang偏好主權債券多於企業債券，原因是主權評級上調的趨勢及動力仍然強勁。結合我們對新興市場貨幣及利率基本展望，他認為部分新興市場當地貨幣債券市場在2026年有望實現雙位數報酬。
隨著關稅影響浮現，審慎篩選至關重要
受提前出貨活動影響，加上全球供應鏈承擔關稅的方式不一，關稅尚未對亞洲及新興市場企業的利潤率構成重大壓力。
我們預計貿易談判完成後仍會保留部分關稅，導致供應鏈及貿易流向發生轉變，從而為各個經濟體的應對方式帶來變數。中國料將減少對美國出口，並增加對其他國家出口，為相關國家帶來通縮壓力。在此環境下，瀚亞新加坡固定收益研究主管Clement Chong認為，儘管節省成本或提高效率的舉措有助緩和風險，但企業利潤率的風險仍偏向下行，因此信貸挑選更顯關鍵。
將新加坡元信貸作為核心配置的依據
2025年，新加坡元債券市場位列表現最佳的債券市場，表現領先美國債券市場。瀚亞新加坡投資組合經理Wei Ming Tan預計，在2025年表現強勁後，新加坡元利率及信貸將出現整理。儘管如此，聯準會放寬政策，加上國內流動性充裕，料將限制新加坡元利率的上行空間。他繼續看好存續期，並尋求在利率急升時延長存續期。考慮到信貸曲線相對偏陡，我們仍傾向透過優質企業債券獲取收益。
新加坡獲得強勁資金流入，存款亦大幅增長，惟貸款增長乏力。瀚亞新加坡投資組合經理Benedict Phua表示，預計這種環境將至少在短期內持續。國內零售投資者及高淨值投資者對收益的渴求應利好對新加坡元企業債券的需求。
經歷2023年及2024年的淨負供應後，新加坡元債券發行量在2025年第三季增加，截至2025年9月底輕微正淨供應。新加坡債券市場的增長與深度亦吸引了有意分散融資來源的全球發行人參與債市。整體而言，均衡的技術因素為新加坡元債券帶來強勁利好因素。
圖3：債券按註冊地劃分的發行比例
資料來源：星展銀行，截至2025年9月22日。
新加坡金融管理局在2025年10月決定維持其新加坡元匯率政策不變。隨後，面對經濟增長勝預期及通膨壓力放緩的情況，該央行似乎仍處於「觀望」狀態。
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