摘要

 
台股2026年開年延續多頭氣焰,台灣加權指數直衝3萬點。瀚亞投信指出,元月資金行情加上AI需求持續擴大,台廠供應鏈加快受惠;同時,聯準會降息循環也有利於風險性資產,建議投資人可持續布局主動式台股基金,追求超額報酬與成長機會。 

根據彭博資料統計,過去美國預防性降息週期通常持續半年至兩年,同期間台股平均漲幅約50%。而此次降息循環尚未結束,意味著上漲空間仍值得期待。儘管市場仍有不確定性因素干擾,仍樂觀看待台股全年維持多頭格局。

歷史經驗1:美國預防性降息激勵台股表現

資料來源:Bloomberg, 1995/7/6~2025/11/30,台灣加權指數,瀚亞投信整理。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效,本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。

歷史經驗2:每年第一季為台股表現較佳季度

根據過去30年資料統計,台股第一季平均上漲約4.82%。因新的年度預算編列、上市櫃企業提出公司新計畫、搭配農曆年紅包行情與資金回補,若元月台股能先上漲,之後的二月、三月通常也呈現高勝率與正報酬。

資料來源:Bloomberg,1995Q1~2025Q3,台灣加權指數,瀚亞投信整理。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效,本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。

AI類股估值仍合理 主動靈活挑選

瀚亞菁華基金經理人葉彥廷表示,美國科技巨頭擴大資本支出,逐步將AI導入營運,財報也驗證AI帶來的獲利能力。隨晶片與伺服器需求攀升,將帶動高頻寬記憶體、PCB、散熱、機櫃滑軌等台股供應鏈成長。 

葉彥廷強調,AI股價上漲並非泡沫,只有當評價過度飆升才會形成泡沫前兆,目前AI類股估值仍屬合理。基金操作將採取高度主動選股策略,更專注AI相關科技供應鏈,從AI趨勢中挖掘投資機會,追求超額報酬。

瀚亞菁華基金為例,投資具備三大特色:

  1. 持股聚焦AI供應鏈:專注AI人工智慧產業,掌握未來科技成長機會。本基金持股比重2025年逐季提升,從Q1 64%至年底拉升至83.79%,緊扣市場脈動,布局產業核心。
  2. 投組靈活調整:根據市場AI題材動態調整持股,從晶片擴展至伺服器、高頻寬記憶體、PCB、散熱到機櫃滑軌等台股供應鏈。
  3. 強化主動選股:不盲從指數,追求超額報酬。本基金不貼指數,採高度主動選股,以2025/11月底產業持股比重來看,僅37%持股與指數前五十大持股相同,更專注於AI相關科技供應鏈。

 

 

更多文章

了解更多
【日本動力】高市經濟學 Japan is back 日股的新常態與新氣象

in insights

股票

【日本動力】高市經濟學 Japan is back 日股的新常態與新氣象

2025/11

日本新任首相高市早苗當選後,高市經濟學(Sanaenomics)受到各方矚目,而「Japan is back(日本...

【日本動力】忍者式隱形漲勢 日股本益比可望上調

in insights

股票

【日本動力】忍者式隱形漲勢 日股本益比可望上調

2025/10

日股自美國川普宣布解放日關稅後,吸引全球投資者買進,日股其低調但具爆發力的走勢,更被媒體稱之為「忍者式隱形漲勢(n...

【美國科技】單筆、定期定額皆宜 投資科技股不嫌晚

in insights

股票

【美國科技】單筆、定期定額皆宜 投資科技股不嫌晚

2025/10

AI應用及需求爆發,科技基金會太貴嗎?定期定額投資永遠不嫌晚,瀚亞美國高科技基金聚焦半導體及AI題材次產業,短中長...

【Q4展望】不投資風險更高!分散風險維持動能

in insights

多元資產

【Q4展望】不投資風險更高!分散風險維持動能

2025/09

第三季聯準會啟動降息、關稅政策噪音略減,市場陸續反映各項利多,帶動股債資產齊揚,但景氣趨緩與就業市場降溫,以及亞洲...

【全球科技】瞄準5大AI亮點 這檔基金有看頭

in insights

股票

【全球科技】瞄準5大AI亮點 這檔基金有看頭

2025/09

AI科技股太貴了嗎?降息機率大增,資金與財報樂觀可期,現在布局瀚亞投資-全球科技股票基金(本基金配息來源可能為本金...

This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.


The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).