摘要
根據彭博資料統計,過去美國預防性降息週期通常持續半年至兩年,同期間台股平均漲幅約50%。而此次降息循環尚未結束,意味著上漲空間仍值得期待。儘管市場仍有不確定性因素干擾,仍樂觀看待台股全年維持多頭格局。
歷史經驗1:美國預防性降息激勵台股表現

資料來源:Bloomberg, 1995/7/6~2025/11/30,台灣加權指數,瀚亞投信整理。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效,本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。
歷史經驗2:每年第一季為台股表現較佳季度
根據過去30年資料統計,台股第一季平均上漲約4.82%。因新的年度預算編列、上市櫃企業提出公司新計畫、搭配農曆年紅包行情與資金回補,若元月台股能先上漲,之後的二月、三月通常也呈現高勝率與正報酬。
資料來源:Bloomberg,1995Q1~2025Q3,台灣加權指數,瀚亞投信整理。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效,本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。
AI類股估值仍合理 主動靈活挑選
瀚亞菁華基金經理人葉彥廷表示,美國科技巨頭擴大資本支出,逐步將AI導入營運,財報也驗證AI帶來的獲利能力。隨晶片與伺服器需求攀升,將帶動高頻寬記憶體、PCB、散熱、機櫃滑軌等台股供應鏈成長。
葉彥廷強調,AI股價上漲並非泡沫,只有當評價過度飆升才會形成泡沫前兆,目前AI類股估值仍屬合理。基金操作將採取高度主動選股策略,更專注AI相關科技供應鏈,從AI趨勢中挖掘投資機會,追求超額報酬。
以瀚亞菁華基金為例,投資具備三大特色:
- 持股聚焦AI供應鏈:專注AI人工智慧產業,掌握未來科技成長機會。本基金持股比重2025年逐季提升,從Q1 64%至年底拉升至83.79%,緊扣市場脈動,布局產業核心。
- 投組靈活調整:根據市場AI題材動態調整持股,從晶片擴展至伺服器、高頻寬記憶體、PCB、散熱到機櫃滑軌等台股供應鏈。
- 強化主動選股:不盲從指數,追求超額報酬。本基金不貼指數,採高度主動選股,以2025/11月底產業持股比重來看,僅37%持股與指數前五十大持股相同,更專注於AI相關科技供應鏈。
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