摘要
印度市場2026年迎來新轉機，尤其是與美國的關稅協定談判，最新稅率降至18%，移除自去年以來的最大不確定性；從政策題材來看，無論是印美/印歐等關稅，都將有利於印度迎來外資回流。
轉機一、美印達成對等關稅協議
美國隊印度商品的對等關稅（涵蓋紡織、服裝、皮革、塑料、化學品等主要輸美項目）；而部分印度出口產品最終可免除關稅，如仿製藥、寶石與鑽石、飛機零件等高附加值產品。
根據美銀美林預估，此協議可望使印度實質GDP成長至少增加 0.2%，對出口導向產業及技術密集之資通訊科技產業發展尤其有利，也有利於吸引外資重新布局印度市場。瀚亞投信認為，印美關稅協定，不只是貿易與經濟，更意味印度藉此強化出口競爭力、吸引外資、鞏固供應鏈地位，並提升地緣戰略價值。
轉機二、印歐貿易協定落地
印度/歐盟自由貿易協定底定，被視為印度對外經貿戰略的重要里程碑，雙邊大部分商品關稅大幅削減或免除，例如印度對歐盟高端汽車關稅自現行的110%降至約10%，而歐盟對印度商品的高關稅逐步取消，例如紡織、塑膠、橡膠、皮革及寶石珠寶等。印度出口至歐洲的品項如果對比出口美國，至少有一倍以上的成長空間。
轉機三、新財年預算登場
印度新財年財政預算2/1出爐，2026年至2027年聚焦於「穩財政、擴基建」兩大主軸，兼顧財政紀財政紀律與經濟成長。其中，財政赤字目標明年將降至GDP 4.32%，將是8年來最低；資本支出則維持擴張計劃，中央政府的資本支出將增長11.5%，而預算政策重點放在提升國內製造業、基礎建設及發展IT服務。
瀚亞投信認為，從產業看，即使沒有新的消費刺激政策，但消費復甦可望受去年政策寬鬆的滯後效應支撐。在資本支出方面，國防支出優先加強了為最大受惠產業。中期來看，戰略性領域及新基礎建設的投資機會上升，包括數位基建/數據中心、生技、交通走廊、核能與關鍵礦產等。市場仍維持對印度股市的中性偏樂觀期待，預期全年回報仍可望由盈利復甦驅動推升。
印度終於迎來多項具結構性意義的重大利多，處境不再處於逆風情勢，外貿條件落地並改善，印度股市可望展開落後補漲的行情。投資印度市場，首選瀚亞印度基金（本基金配息來源可能為本金），持股涵蓋大、中、小型股*，高覆蓋度策略掌握完整投資機會，並且提供投資人多元級別選擇，包括前收累積（新台幣/美元/人民幣），針對配息需求者，提供前收配息（新台幣/美元）、後收配息（新台幣/美元）新選擇。
資料來源：瀚亞投信整理。*大/中/小型股定義：市值高於$100億美元為大型股、市值介於$100億~$20億為中型股、市值低於$20億美元為小型股。
本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效，本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。
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