【新興市場債券】2020年12月基金評論

市場現況:

12月對於風險性資產是一個好的月份,儘管出現更具傳染性的變種新冠病毒,但由於新冠疫苗進一步的利多消息,風險性資產表現依然良好。在新興市場中,得益於當地貨幣走強,固定收益、高收益和當地貨幣債在本月表現優於市場上其他類型的風險性資產。

基金持有數量多於基準指標的高收益債與當地貨幣債,因而使基金在12月的表現優於基準指標。資產類別在今年已逐漸恢復,顯示了2020年3月新冠肺炎引發賣壓後的反彈力量。

我們認為,投資級債在市場上的價格相對多,因此我們持續偏好殖利率較高的債券。如果投資級債的估值持續收斂,我們可能會繼續有選擇地增加本地債的持有。然而,有鑑於一些高收益市場的利差持續收斂,我們也密切關注其的估值。

在美元持續承壓的情況下,新興市場貨幣仍普遍被低估。在此低利率環境下,市場對殖利率的追求也將支撐新興市場債券的投資,因為其殖利率具吸引力。儘管最近新冠病毒再次流行,但全球開始施打新冠疫苗應能促進經濟復甦,這很可能會支持資產表現,尤其是以商品和旅遊業為主的國家。預計全球貨幣政策在短期內將保持非常寬鬆,並且可能為重要的支持因素。

投組調整:

本月資金配置沒有重大變化。我們繼續逐步增加當地貨幣債的持有,現在持有比重高於基準指數2%。如果強勢貨幣資產的利差繼續收斂,我們可能會繼續選擇性地增加對當地貨幣資產的持有。

12月份,我們著重於聖誕節前夕流入的大量資金之運用。儘管市場流動性較弱,我們計畫使用多餘的資金買入2021年1月新發行的債券。

 
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