摘要
- 美元回落,歐元地位上升,進入歐洲市場資金增。
- 歐洲央行降息進入尾聲,金融環境持續維持寬鬆。
- 歐洲企業基本面好轉,未來上漲潛力佳。
以色列與伊朗戰爭持續升溫,歐洲股票市場遭遇大跌,戰爭的恐懼令投資人紛紛將資金移出市場,但即便如此,也無可任繼美國總統川普發起關稅戰後,歐洲市場成了全球資金的第二志願。
根據BofA、EPFR數據顯示,統計至6月4日,歐洲股市資金連續八周維持淨流入,進而使歐元增強,發揮更大的國際作用。
即便歐元仍未能取代美元,但僅5%~10%的轉換即會對歐元區造成巨大的影響。由於歐元逐漸強勢、需求增加,在面對即將到期的歐洲對美關稅的90天暫緩期所帶來的不確定性時,可以保護歐洲市場受到資本劇烈流動的衝擊;使歐洲減少對美元的依賴,避免受到制裁或其他強制性措施的影響。
美國例外論逐漸失效 歐股後市行情可期
雖然歐洲市場短期內波動較為劇烈,歐洲央行ECB仍持續看好未來的經濟成長。歐洲央行今年已經八度降息且即將進入尾聲,目前利率水準維持在2%,整體金融環境維持寬鬆,未來最多再降1-2碼,歐洲銀行認為目前寬鬆周期發展良好,在目前的利率水平下足以應對未來的不確定性。
為了分散美國曝險,全球資金開始轉至其他市場,歐洲受惠程度大,資金流入趨勢明顯。儘管短期市場波動較大,長期而言,歐洲的企業有良好的基本面與獲利能力,建議投資人可以分批布局歐洲市場。
瀚亞歐洲基金團隊在操作上僅挑選具良好基本面、提供長期價值的歐洲公司,並透過分散投資,減少市場脆弱性,在穩定成長型與機會型股票間取得平衡,在追求高回報的同時降低風險。
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