【新興市場債券】2020年10月基金評論

市場現況:

因新冠肺炎確診人數在歐洲和美國急遽上升,導致一些歐洲主要國家重新回到封鎖狀態,10月份我們看到了全球風險偏好的下降。本月新興市場債券收益不均,強勢貨幣政府債券收益持平,而當地貨幣主權國家和新興市場公司債券則有所獲利。

市場上的強勢貨幣部位因美國公債殖利率上漲而在存續期間有所損失,但這也隨著債券利差的收斂而被抹平,特別是新興市場公司債,得利於較短的存續期間和與中國有關的亞洲債券快速的反彈。

在10月份,當地貨幣主權債從存續期間和貨幣匯率上都有所收穫,也是新興市場債券中績效表現最佳的部分。儘管新冠肺炎持續帶來危機,並且最新的封鎖使油價和原油相關發行公司及貨幣承壓,但因為我們債券的選擇,基金的績效有所幫助。我們在撒哈拉以南非洲地區(象牙海岸,塞內加爾和加納)和約旦的曝險高於基準指數,而這對整體表現也有所幫助,如同我們在墨西哥和印尼當地債券的曝險一樣。由於土耳其央行意外決定不加息,我們在土耳其里拉的持有部位不足也有所幫助,因為它是當月表現最差的國家(-8%)。美元兌歐元的升值使基金未避險的歐元股票類別有上漲的空間,因為基金維持了相當大的美元部位。

投組調整:

我們將迦納的持有部位降低至基準中立。在其他地方,我們增持了來自巴哈馬(主權債券)、中國線上購物平台美團(IG評級)、超額認購的中國科技公司聯想以及烏茲別克國家銀行。在當地市場,我們增加了對塞爾維亞第納爾和埃及鎊的投資。

 
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