跟上金融股補漲行情 優先定期定額印度

本月即將結束不平凡的一年,回顧2020年度股市表現就像倒吃甘蔗,Sensex指數不僅順利收復年初跌勢,截至11月底穩站44,000點新高。

財報報喜 金融股帶頭衝大盤

印度股市第四季漲勢令人驚豔,金融股帶動11月以來指數漲幅超過一成,回顧自今年低點以來,反彈超過七成之多。印度雖然難以脫離肺炎疫情衝擊,但經濟數據復甦力道優於預期,FY21第二季(7~9月)財報結果也顯示股票營收獲利均明顯回升,預料2021年在基本需求遞延、供應鏈恢復,帶動企業獲利強勁復甦。

財報數字會說話!印度財報推升大盤上漲,金融股功不可沒,銀行股單季獲利成長5%明顯增長,更是支撐印度指數獲利增長的主要來源。隨著優質金融股展現原有投資價值,金融股吸引國外資金大舉流入,股價表現開始落後補漲,評價可望提升,印度金融股的低基期與低評價,將是下一波推升指數走勢的主流。

圖1:全球國家低點反彈迄今報酬(美元計價%)全球國家低點反彈迄今報酬圖2:印度Nifty 指數未來一年估值P/B(X)印度Nifty 指數未來一年估值P/B
資料來源:(1) CMoney,統計至2020/11/11;(2) Lipper,統計至2020/9/30

後疫情時代 跟著印度復甦腳步走

從總體經濟看復甦,相關指標都看的見!印度政府消費支出強勁,製造業與服務業PMI等實質經濟數據隨著解封彈升;此外,經常帳盈餘占GDP比重上升,強勁的資本流動和經常賬戶盈餘,也為印度盧比提供支撐。

投資建議方面,印度股市估值在合理區間,未來一印度Nifty股市P/B約2.5倍,仍在長期平均左右。短期若有波動,為長期投資創造機會,建議投資人面對上漲的印度股是,多加利用定期定額,擴增印度股市部位。

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