【新興市場債券】2021年5月基金評論

市場現況:

5月新興市場債券表現良好,歸功於新興市場貨幣表現支撐,當地貨幣主權債券市場相較美元主權債表現更好。

本月基金表現大致與基準指標持平。我們所持有的高收益債券部位提供高於指數的報酬,但我們對於表現強勁的貨幣相關部位較為缺乏(特別是南非、匈牙利以及巴西貨幣)也造成績效降低。歐元走強也減損了本基金中未對歐元避險部位的報酬。

公司債連續兩個月落後當地主權債,但仍是自今年以來最好的表現。

展望未來,我們正在評估部分高收益債的估值,如果我們認為估值變得昂貴,則將進一步減少部位。我們希望用近期表現不佳的當地貨幣部位取代它們,包括特定公司債或評級較高的主權債。

部位調整:

基金部位沒有重大調整。本月也只有少數新發行的主權債以及企業活動。

我們減少了部分對秘魯新索爾的避險,而這使本基金的當地貨幣的部位小幅增加。

在哥倫比亞,隨著該國社會動盪和部分債券投資評級的損失,基金的存續期間提高至高於指數的水準。經過幾天的大規模抗議,總統撤回了一項有爭議的稅收改革法案,也使全國鬆了口氣。此外,由於秘魯總統大選將近,我們也將針對祕魯的投資部位進行評估。

在中國,鑑於債務重組的可能性提高,我們減少了4月份增持的華融資產管理公司的部位。此外,我們認為南非電力公司Eskom分拆部分業務的消息提供中長期的利多因素,因此增加該部位的持有。

在金融領域,我們在部分巴西銀行之間進行價差交易,買入南非的 Absa 銀行和賣出以色列的Leumi銀行部位,因其信用利差持續收緊,且最近的軍事衝突並沒有使利差擴大太多。我們還買入了加勒比保險公司 Sagicor以取代減持的牙買加主權債,因為我們認為其估值似乎被高估。

 
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