【新興市場債券】2021年3月基金評論

市場現況:

新興市場債券在3月份表現疲軟,延續今年以來的糟糕表現,當地貨幣債券是市場上表現最差的債券,主要是受到強勢美元和存續期間的影響。

受到基金在高收益主權債的持有部位較基準指標多且高收益主權債表現不佳影響,基金的報酬率低於其基準指標。

本月最極端的事件出現在土耳其,土耳其央行行長因升息而被解僱。市場對該消息反應不佳,土耳其債券和貨幣均貶值。

大多數強勢貨幣債券在三月份表現不佳,儘管在國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)傳出,將擴大發展中國家特別提款權的消息後,少數具有高利差但陷入困境的國家主權債表現良好。擴張將有助於發展中國家的經濟復甦,在不增加債務負擔的情況下增加其儲備。

新興市場公司債得益於其較短的存續期間和偏向投資級別的地位,再一次表現優於主權國家,後者在一個月內的表現優於更高的收益債券。

部位調整:

基金定位沒有重大變化。我們維持基金對當地貨幣債高於基準指數的曝險。

在個別債券方面,我們增加南非和越南的主權債以及南非國家電力公司Eskom的債券。

有鑑於突尼西亞總理組建政府失敗,因此無法啟動改革計畫以獲取IMF的融資,所以我們清空了突尼西亞的部位。此外,我們也以估值的價格出售Transnet2022年到期債券。

在新發行債券市場上,本月相當繁忙。我們有選擇地參與市場,購買了巴基斯坦的2051年到期債(出售了一些2036年到期債),並且購買了馬其頓2028年到期債(出售了2023年到期債)。最後在土耳其,因銀行類股表現較佳,我們將銀行的部分倉位轉為主權債券。

 
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