【美國優質債】2021年4月基金評論

市場總覽:

4月份美國市場持續上漲,主要受經濟數據表現佳、企業財報優於預期且政府可能推出更多刺激法案等推動。

美國中長天期公債殖利率4月份不再上升;殖利率下降,但年初至今仍維持高點(10年期公債殖利率本月下降9個基點至1.65%,年初至今上升72個基點)。

由於基本面狀況改善,4月份美國投資級債利差收斂。

彭博巴克萊美國債券指數4月份利差收斂2個基點至83個基點,年初至今收斂8個基點。4月份總報酬1.06%,年初至今的報酬-3.44%。

相較美國公債,4月份多數投資級公司債表現佳,REITs相關(66 bps)、金融公司(48 bps)及天然氣(47 bps)較佳,而非景氣循環(-27 bps)、主權債(-19 bps)及通訊(-15 bps)較落後。

相較美國公債,年初至今各產業表現均領先,地方政府債(329 bps)、能源債(244 bps)及金融公司(227 bps)表現領先,而超主權債(16 bps)、主權債(21 bps)及銀行(29 bps)則領先較少。

投資級債4月新發行1,640億美元,年初至今發行量為6,870億美元,年增率-24%,但與其他年份相比,發行量仍高(較2019年多42%)。

投資級債券市在4月資金淨流入為180億美元,主要由於今年以來收益率上升,使退休基金/保險投資相關需求上升,年初至今共流入740億美元。

基金總覽:

4月份,基金在航空運輸及投資與金融服務的選債貢獻最大,分別貢獻了2個基點及1個基點。反之,基金在菸草和飲料相關部位則拖累表現,各影響1個基點。

年初至今,基金在航空運輸和天然氣配送的選債貢獻最大,分別貢獻了8個基點及7個基點。反之,基金加碼銀行業和REITs拖累表現,分別影響2個基點及1個基點。

未來展望:

。美國投資級債估值吸引力較先前低

−產業和債券選擇是現階段最重要的。

−預計2021年投資級債估值將在區間內盤整,我們將策略性地調整配置。

。我們對基本面的觀點如下:

−基本面持續支撐總體市場,由於經濟數據和公司營收維持上行趨勢,我們預期經濟將會持續改善。

−然而,投資級公司槓桿上升,且可能會傾向保障股東報酬(股票買回、股利等等)而非減少債務。

−新冠疫苗施打人數上升應該是經濟重啟與美國GDP增加的主要驅動因素。然而,持續的經濟復甦可能會使美國聯準會收回一些貨幣政策。

。投資級債供給增加

− 2021年,投資級債發行量每月皆高於市場預期,且我們預計這個狀況將會持續一段時間。

− 市場對投資級債的需求好壞參半:年初至今的負報酬可能導致資金外流;較高的殖利率可能增加投資者對投資級商品的偏好。

 
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