【美國優質債】2021年3月基金評論

市場總覽:

3月份,美國市場好壞參半,經濟基本面正向,如: 政府刺激法案、公司營收及經濟數據等。

美國中長天期公債殖利率3月份持續攀升;10年期公債殖利率上升30個基點至1.74%,而30年期公債殖利率上升24個基點至2.41%。3月份,美國投資級債下跌,因為美國公債殖利率持續上升,但利差在3月最後一個星期收斂,利差水準與2月相當。彭博巴克萊美國債券指數3月份超額報酬34個基點,利差與上個月相當,當月總報酬-1.59%,年初至今為-4.45%。

3月份,大部分產業表現佳;主權債相關(157 bps)及通訊產業(112 bps)較佳,而銀行(-28bps)及券商、資產管理公司(-15 bps)較落後。年初至今,類主權債(286bps)及能源債(213 bps)表現領先,而銀行(7bps)與超主權債(13bps)落後。

投資級債市3月新發行2,010億美元,為歷史紀錄第五高(前四高皆發生於2020年)。年初至今發行量為5,240億美元,與2020年發行數量僅有3%之差。

投資級債券市場在3月資金淨流入為120億美元,年初至今已流入550億美元。

基金總覽:

3月份,基金在天然氣配送和航空運輸業的選債貢獻最大,各貢獻3個基點。反之,基金在人壽保險公司債和銀行債部位則拖累表現,各影響1個基點。

年初至今,基金在航空運輸和天然氣配送的選債貢獻最大,各貢獻6個基點。相反地,基金加碼銀行業拖累表現,影響3個基點。

另外,基金加碼政府公債為第二大非現金拖累因素,影響1個基點。

未來展望:

。美國投資級債估值吸引力下降

− 產業和債券選擇是現階段最重要的。

− 預計2021年投資級債估值將在區間內盤整,我們將策略性地調整配置。

。我們對基本面的觀點為好壞參半

− 基本面持續支撐總體市場,由於經濟數據和公司營收維持上行趨勢,我們預期經濟將會持續改善。

− 然而,投資級債槓桿持續上升,且公司可能會傾向保障股東報酬(股票買回、股利等等)而非減少債務。

− 新冠疫苗施打人數上升應該是經濟重啟與美國GDP增加的主要驅動因素。然而,持續的經濟復甦可能會使美國聯準會撤回一些貨幣政策。

。投資級債供給增加

− 2021年,投資級債發行量每月皆高於市場預期,且我們預計這個狀況將會持續一段時間。

− 市場對投資級債的需求: 較高的殖利率可能增加投資者對投資級商品的偏好。

 
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