【投資長看台股】 中國大陸限電政策下的台股新機會

台股近期出現較大回檔,自17,300點修正一度逾千點,瀚亞投資長劉興唐提出最新看法,盤面修正主要來自三大原因:美國政府調高債務上限遭阻、中國祭出「能耗雙控」限電政策,以及股市評價水準來到近20年高檔;其中,中國限電政策影響下,台股相關產業仍有投資機會浮現。

觀盤重點

美國債務膨脹議題僵持不下,成為短線干擾市場的重要因素之一,美國財政部長葉倫公開表示希望國會提高舉債上限,以避免債務違約之可能性,引發市場議論,進而衝擊股市表現。

第三季開始中國宣布集體限電措施,擴大對高耗能、高汙染產業實施嚴格控管,工廠生產受影響,其背後隱含的是全球能源價格高漲,以及減少碳排放的壓力。限電措施將導致生產中斷、干擾產業供應,進一步拖累全球股市表現。

另一方面,從評價面來看,由於全球股市過去兩年的亮眼漲勢,使得股市評價來到近20年高檔位置,僅次於2000年科技泡沫水準、且高於金融海嘯前高點。

綜上所述,台股短線面臨較大回檔壓力。惟在經濟數據持續轉佳、基本面向上,以及景氣循環周期尚未結束等條件支撐,市場中長線趨勢依舊往上。加上美國聯準會表明不會在今年啟動升息,根據過往經驗股市高檔多出現在升息尾聲、開始降息之前,目前尚未正式進入升息階段,預計股市還有走升空間。

操作建議

近期操作策略上,中國限電措施對台股產業造成較明顯的影響,主要集中在漲多的科技股以及航運產業。面對中國限電,漲多的科技股首當其衝,尤其是產線位於限電地區的族群影響最大,包括PCB、電子網通廠、被動元件等。而因為限電伴隨而生的減產問題,亦將壓縮貨運需求,恐影響海運、空運價格。

中國限電措施造就台股部分受惠族群浮現,分為短期受惠與長期受惠。

短期受惠產業:聚焦因產能減少、報價上漲的題材股,包括塑化股中的PVC、EVA、工業用紙,以及部分鋼鐵等族群。

長期受惠產業:以綠能、電動車為主,隨著全球積極推動零碳經濟,再生能源、綠能需求大幅增加,包括太陽能、風力發電、儲能設備等。同時電動車也會逐步取代油車,後續成長動能龐大,看好車用線束零組件、充電樁,與鋰電池等供應鏈。

此外,美國聯準會預計今年進行削減購債計畫,下一步為利率正常化,在升息循環的環境下,有利於金融股利差擴大,可望替整個產業帶來正面效應,因此看好金融股中期表現。

 
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