摘要

 

隨著通膨明顯降溫,全球利空消息逐漸消化,第三季投資市場即將擺脫忽雨忽晴的梅雨季,逐步撥雲見日,投資人適合在波動中尋找投資機會。

展望下半年,瀚亞投信投資長林如惠表示,美國經濟成長有望在第三季底觸底後回升,綜合各項數據觀察,美國經濟出現大幅惡化機率偏低,除此,企業獲利與銷量優於預期比例高,有望支撐股市啟動多頭行情,建議投資人可在股票資產建立部位。

隨著聯準會下半年可能暫停升息,總體經濟可能發生「軟著陸、通膨回落」情境的機率大,預期聯準會將利率水準維持高檔,對於公債中性,但對於信用債、新興債及股市相對偏多。

把握峰值利率 債市優選投資級債

在升息循環推升下,各種債券種類殖利率水準目前約落在過去十年高點,瀚亞預期,第三季利差可望出現較大的收窄空間,在違約率些微走升、但可控的情況下,看好投資等級債券、信用債券機會,投資人亦可布局相關基金,把握較高的殖利率收益。

● 投資等級債:基本面健康、信評展望正向、債券價格仍在歷史低點,均有助於降低經濟成長及企業獲利趨緩影響;優質收益將吸引想降風險的資金。

● 非投資等級債:經濟衰退風險仍存,但基本面不差,下檔風險可控。建議投資以 6 個月以上配置角度,以累積收益為主。

搶反彈時點來了 美日印引擎發動

針對海外股票,有哪些市場看好?瀚亞投信海外股票投資部主管林元平表示,已開發市場看好美國、日本市場的表現,儘管當前位於高檔,但兩者都具題材性,適合投資人回檔時增持;新興市場最看好印度,因持續處於穩定擴張階段,加上企業財報優於預期,有望持續吸引國內資金買超及國際資金回籠。

● 日本:預計短期內不會調整貨幣政策,便宜的日圓將有助於日企獲利表現,而當地薪資上調、觀光復甦,將會促使當地消費力道提升。

● 美股:鎖定 AI 科技成長趨勢,應用層面也廣泛,能帶動需求量提升,促使市場已將悲觀情緒轉向樂觀,美國科技股後市相當可期。

● 印度:印度經濟與產業數據成長,如商品及服務稅(GST)持續創高、PMI 維持擴張向上、房地產的新推案量與金額均創歷史新高、農村消費恢復動能,看好下半年補漲行情。

三多三空因素影響台股 拉回可買進

「三多三空」將影響台股第三季走勢,利多因素包括貨幣壓力減輕、景氣有望回升、AI 創造新應用,惟美國通膨黏性問題與區域性銀行風險、終端需求回升力度不如預期及庫存時間拉長等利空因素仍猶存。

整體來看,樂觀看待第三季股市表現,建議投資人可採取拉回買進策略,建議配置出口外銷、科技股為主的台股基金,亦可長期配置台股股債平衡型基金;類股則相對看好 AI 伺服器、重電設備、軍工及航太等產業供應鏈後市表現。

2023 年第三季精選基金清單
1_230626_spotlight_Q3outlook
資料來源 : 瀚亞投信

更多文章

了解更多
【印巴衝突】市場最新評析

in insights

股票

【印巴衝突】市場最新評析

2025/05

印度與巴基斯坦之間的衝突升溫,加上美國關稅談判尚未落幕,對印度投資市場有何影響?

歐股中長線偏多看待  建議定期定額布局

in insights

股票

歐股中長線偏多看待 建議定期定額布局

2025/05

歐洲經濟成長開始復甦。瀚亞投信表示,儘管成長速度較緩慢,但具穩定的基礎,隨著通膨降溫與金融環境逐步寬鬆,本益比有望...

關稅持續干擾市場情緒  印股展現出韌性

in insights

股票

關稅持續干擾市場情緒 印股展現出韌性

2025/04

對等關稅全球股市造成無差別式的傷害,全球經濟陷入衰退風險的機率大增,惟印度股市在這波修正中展現出韌性,Nifty5...

This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.


The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).