【收益優化】2021年10月基金評論

市場現況:

10月份債券市場持續波動,因為投資者開始對令人擔憂的低成長和高通膨情況(有時稱為停滯性通貨膨脹)進行權衡。這意味著主要政府公債的殖利率曲線有所趨平:由於預期央行可能對通膨上升做出反應,短期殖利率上升(且價格下跌),而長期殖利率下降(且價格上漲)因投資者擔心未來的經濟成長。雖然這導致美國公債和德國公債的表現基本持平,但英國政府公債發行量的減少激勵了英國公債的表現,總報酬成長了2.1%(與9月份的-3.7%相比)。

在公司債方面,美國和英國的市場的總報酬略微為正值,但歐洲公司債在本月結束時為負值。

在評等範圍內(以及所有地區),債券評等幾乎沒有差異。然而,與9月份一樣,信用利差保持彈性,幾乎沒有再次變動。

由於債券市場尤其是政府公債的進一步波動,本基金短存續期間的部位(主要位於殖利率曲線的長端)對績效構成壓力。我們押注該資產類別的殖利率上升和價格下跌,因為我們對成長的看法仍然比廣泛的共識更具建設性,而在某種程度上,本月發生了相反的情況。一些積極的報酬來自股票曝險,我們仍然看好週期性產業,以及我們最近加碼做空長期的英國通膨交換合約。來自公司債的報酬大致持平。

投組調整:

我們維持對經濟成長的建設性看法,並相信通膨將在明年很長一段時間內繼續成為推動全球經濟的力量。因此,本基金的存續期仍然偏低,為2.4年,我們繼續在公司債領域尋找投資機會,尤其是在歐洲地區和金融產業。對於後者,我們認為銀行就像經濟的一面鏡子:經濟強勁時,銀行得到良好的支持,而經濟疲軟時,銀行將遭受損失。我們目前處於正面的宏觀經濟環境中,因此我們偏好持有銀行類股。

在政府公債中,我們添加了一些短期英國公債,因為從我們的角度來看,它們現在看起來相對更具吸引力。

另一方面,由於實際殖利率仍為負值且通膨盈虧平衡點顯著上升,達到2%,我們進一步減少了對德國通膨連結債券的曝險。本月我們還通過長期的英國通膨交換合約增加了我們在英國通膨方面做空部位。這意味著我們認為通膨不會像市場預期的那樣高,儘管它仍將是宏觀經濟格局的一個特徵。

談到股票曝險,我們10月份的一項關鍵交易是關閉我們在全球石油公司荷蘭皇家殼牌的部位。這是因為該基金從10月29日起符合歐盟委員會新推出的可持續金融訊息披露條例(SFDR)的第8條。這意味著該基金遵循積極ESG傾向的管理,旨在為投資者提供高於其基準的加權平均ESG得分。基於其ESG規範,該基金還將擴大公司的排除範圍,例如違反UNGC原則的公司,以及被自由之家指數評估為「不自由」的國家。

最後,我們的高收益曝險保持不變,儘管最近幾個月報酬率有所上升(減持約17-18%的曝險相對於33.3%的中性權重)。我們繼續認為,穩健的宏觀經濟背景應將違約率保持在較低水平,因此有利於其資產類別。

 
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