【收益優化】2021年9月基金評論

市場現況:

對於金融市場而言,9月份表現較疲軟,與今年迄今正向的收益表現形成鮮明對比。投資人情緒受到高通膨、升息可能提前以及對中國恆大集團的疑慮-仍在努力支付到期的債券利息消息抑制,使債市和股市瀰漫賣壓。

固定收益方面,公司債的總報酬在本月月底為負,英國公司債的虧損與美國、歐洲公司債相比更大。債券往往因風險越高而有更高的報酬,我們相信信用利差表現將受經濟復甦和寬鬆央行政策的支撐。

在核心政府債券中,美國公債、英國公債和德國公債在8月份的總報酬為負,殖益率持續上升。到期日在15年以上的債券本月相對落後,主要因其利息支付期間較長,而承受更高的通膨風險。最後,歐洲天然氣價格上漲了 94%,推動許多市場資產表現優良;然而,也代表了高通膨可能影響未來一段期間。

9月份基金表現優於基準指數,我們的短存續期間是推動基金表現的關鍵因素,債券部位也表現優良,無論絕對或相對報酬皆呈現正報酬。我們減少了新興市場債的持有,尤其是中國的部位(主要為恆大因素)減持有助於基金表現。股票部位中,我們大多持有循環性和價值型股票也增加了績效。

投組調整:

我們仍對經濟成長維持樂觀預期,並相信通膨最終將高於我們過去習慣的水準。因此,本基金的存續期間仍維持偏低,為2.4年。我們持續於債市尋找機會,尤其是在歐洲和金融領域。對於後者,我們認為銀行就像經濟的一面鏡子:當經濟強勁時,銀行得到很好的支持。目前總體經濟環境保持正向,因此我們樂於持有銀行相關部位。

在股票方面,我們增持一些舊有股票的部位,並新增了艾珂集團的部位。艾珂在最近幾個月表現落後,我們認為其目前提供了吸引人的估值。目前,我們的股票部位接近5%。

在政府債券方面,持續減持通膨連結債部位,主要考量為目前實質殖利率極低(-2%)。我們也利用債券交換工具增加了英國通膨連結債的空頭部位。雖然我們認為通膨率會維持高檔,然而英國通膨連結債於未來十年的訂價已高於4%,且零售物價指數將於2030年前因成分重組而面臨下修。

最後,我們正在逐漸增加我們的高收益債部位(但仍保持17-18%的偏低權重,而中性權重為33.3%),考量目前的經濟背景(正成長以及低利率),應能將違約率壓低並支持高收益資產級別。

 
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