【收益優化】2021年5月基金評論

市場現況:

本月風險性資產相當樂觀,投資者主要是受到更多經濟體的解封和疫苗推出的穩步推進激勵。金屬價格漲幅最大,包括白銀 (+8.1%)、黃金 (+7.8%) 和銅 (+4.4%)。其中一些金屬被投資者用作傳統抗通膨的對沖工具。

然而,經濟解除封鎖的後果是商品和服務價格上漲。美國消費者物價指數 (CPI) 在 12 個月內為 4.2%,為 2008 年 9 月以來的最高水平。最初核心政府公債的殖利率因此而迅速上升,然後在下半月下降。

與 4 月份類似,所有股票(美國、英國、新興市場和大多數歐洲市場)普遍受惠而價格上漲。

談到固定收益,公司債券市場有一個相當樂觀的月份,儘管年初至今殖利率仍處於負值區域。優質美國公司債券的總收益上升 0.7%,英國公司債券上升 0.3%,但歐洲公司債券月底下跌 0.1%。

對於高收益公司債券來說,這是又一個樂觀的月份,美國高收益 (+0.3%) 和泛歐高收益市場 (+0.2%) 延續了一年的穩健表現。

在核心政府債券中,與前幾個月相比,美國公債的殖利率增加了 0.3%,英國公債的殖利率上漲了 0.4%,但與前幾個月相比,這些債券的殖利率仍然落後。與此同時,德國公債下跌 0.1%,因投資者評估了經濟數據穩健的跡象對比通膨壓力的缺乏。

5 月份對該基金來說是一個略顯樂觀的月份,其表現受到週期性公司股票(能源、汽車)曝險的影響。這有助於抵消固定收益市場的基本持平月份,因為投資者繼續權衡更高的通膨對債券的影響,尤其是擁有長天期殖利率曲線的政府債券。總體而言,信用利差略低,而政府債券報酬率在本月結束時基本持平。

部位調整:

本月的主要交易包括將長天期美國投資級債券進一步轉換為期限為 5-10 年的歐元計價本票。在後者中,我們專注於以歐元發行債券的美國銀行,我們認為該行業供應量大且估值較低,是可以利用的優勢。

談到我們對投資組合內利率風險(存續期間)的看法,我們認為更高的增長和最終更高的通膨將對政府債券施加進一步的壓力,尤其是長天期殖利率曲線。因此,我們在 2.7 年的投資組合中維持低存續期間部位。

雖然基金仍然減持高收益債券(13-14% 的風險部位與 33.3% 的中性權重),但我們繼續尋找我們認為有吸引力的機會,主要來自BB 評級和墮落天使債券。

在股票中,整體曝險接近 5%,並且最近一直在穩步上升。我們增持了現有資產,主要是我們認為這些能源公司的估值具有吸引力。目前,我們的股票曝險主要投資於歐洲和英國公司,並傾向於週期性行業。

本月我們的無風險部位(現金和政府債券)沒有重大變化,約占基金資產的三分之一,儘管我們增加了長天期義大利政府公債和日本通膨掛鉤的債券。

此外,我們減持一些新興市場的部位,因為我們認為通膨加劇(由商品價格上漲推動)可能會在未來幾個月加劇一些國家的政治和社會緊張局勢。

隨著我們接近 2021 年的中點——這一年肯定比去年更加穩定——我們仍認為信用利差處於歷史緊縮狀態。然而,我們相信強勁的經濟復甦加上寬鬆的貨幣政策應將公司債券的違約率保持在較低水平,從而支持利差。另一方面,我們認為長期國債殖利率將繼續上升,反映更好的總體經濟前景。

 
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