【收益優化】2021年4月基金評論

市場現況:

本月風險性資產普遍表現優異,因為投資者情緒受到經濟持續復甦的跡象所支撐,尤其是在美國和中國。同樣地,聯準會和其他中央銀行表示他們將在可見的期間內維持貨幣刺激措施,亦提振4月市場的風險偏好。

本月表現突出的是軟商品,玉米(上漲31.1%)和小麥(上漲20.1%)以及包括銅在內的金屬,上漲12.1%。

銅價的上漲是兩個驅動情緒因素所造成的。首先,它是可再生能源替代方案(如電動汽車和風電場)的關鍵要素,這些替代能源已成為最近的熱門話題。其次,銅價通常與全球經濟(尤其是中國)的整體前景發展一致,銅價將於2021年大幅上漲。

各個市場股票(美國、英國、新興市場和大多數歐洲市場)也是4月份風險資產價格上漲的好例子。

至於固定收益,很高興能看到在第一季表現不佳之後,公司債市場出現了溫和的復甦。投資級美國公司債的總報酬為1.2%,英國公司債的總報酬為0.8%,但歐洲公司債於月末持平。

高收益公司債於4月表現亦不錯,美國(+1.1%)和泛歐洲(+0.7%)的主要市場均創下2021年迄今表現今最好的一個月份。

在核心政府債中,美國公債總報酬為0.8%,英國公債總報酬為0.5%,表現相較前幾個月來說較佳。極可能是這個月聯準會和英國央行的鴿派立場支撐著這些資產的偏好。與該趨勢相反的是,德國公債下跌了0.7%,主要係因投資者考慮到一旦完全解除對新冠病毒的封鎖,歐洲經濟的反彈速度是否會跟美國一樣快。

本基金在4月份獲得了正報酬,但表現不如基準指標。就債券部位而言,投資級債和高收益債皆為重要的驅動報酬因素。另一方面,來自股票的貢獻平緩,而存續期僅微幅增加。儘管經濟持續強勁復甦,美國公債殖利率仍較低,本基金縮短於美國的存續期間,並減持表現強勁的新興市場高收益債,為導致表現不佳的因素。

部位調整:

本月的主要交易包括從,將長期美元投資級債的部位轉到歐洲投資級債。自2020年5月以來,由於我們認為後者估值具吸引力,我們已將有效地該部位增加了一倍。

我們也持續專注於可能受益於今年夏天經濟重啟的行業,增加飛機製造商波音和勞斯萊斯,以及聯合航空公司。

而我們對利率風險(存續期間)的看法,我們認為美國公債殖利率和經濟成長應同時發生變化,換句話說,較高的增長率應導致較高的長期殖利率。 因此,我們因應長天期的美國公債殖利率曲線來調整存續期間,因為我們相信強勁的總體經濟環境以及被動(而非主動)的聯準會將導致美國公債殖利率曲線更陡峭。

本基金對於高收益債的配置仍然低於基準指標(目前佔13~14%,而中性配置為33.3%),我們一直在尋找我們認為具有吸引力的機會,主要是從BB評級的公司和墮落天使中尋找。

在股票方面,整體配置保持在4.5%左右。我們一直在尋找在該領域具有潛力的機會,並且一直有在配置法國電信公司Orange,我們認為該股票的絕對和相對價格都便宜。整體而言,我們的股票部位主要仍投資於歐洲和英國的公司,並多投資於景氣循環類股。

儘管我們持續增持某些新興市場,本月於無風險資產的配置(現金和政府債券)並沒有重大的變化,大約占基金資產歐洲外圍政府債的三分之一。針對新興市場政府債,我們增持塞爾維亞和北馬其頓,至於歐洲外圍國家政府債,我們增持意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙發行的長期債券。我們還買入意大利新發行的美元債,因為它有具吸引力的約200個基點的溢價。

 
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