【收益優化】2021年2月基金評論

市場現況:

2月份債券市場備受關注,這主要是由於疫苗的推出,使人們增加對經濟復甦的預期,引發市場對通膨上升以及因此升息的擔憂。這導致歐洲主要政府債券遭到拋售:英國公債報酬下降5.7%,德國公債報酬下降1.9%。除了疫苗消息的激勵外,投資人還對拜登實施寬鬆財政政策的可能性做出反應,因此出售了美國公債的部位。美國公債總報酬率下降2.3%,是自2016年11月川普當選總統並宣布類似財政計劃以來的最差單月表現。

公司債市也有不良影響,公司債的存續時間因主要政府公債的拋售而被拖累。例如,英國優質公司債的總報酬下降了3.2%,歐洲公司債下跌了0.8%,而美國公司債券下跌了2.0%。風險較高的高收益公司債表現更好,美國大型高收益債(+0.3%)和泛歐洲市場(+0.6%)上有所成長。

總體而言,股市出現小幅上漲,但從本月下半月從月中高點回落。由於「通膨交易」近期在市場上居主導地位,通膨相關的大宗商品(石油,銅)表現強勁,而黃金等避險天堂的表現則遜色。

在貨幣方面,英鎊兌美元連續第五個交易日上漲(+1.6%),這主因為英國成功推出疫苗,以及英國央行說服市場在短期內不會考慮負利率。

儘管2月份政府公債遭到大量拋售,資產價格波動加劇,但本基金仍表現積極出色,高於基準指標。表現出色的原因在於本基金對利率的謹慎佈局(對存續期間進行避險),以及其股票部位中含有一些能源公司。公司債部位總體上貢獻績效,但與基準指標相比,這一貢獻是持平的,因為投資級債部位佔比較多帶來的績效,被高收益債部位佔比較少所抵銷。

部位調整:

由於我們的分析師進行了一系列估值,因此我們將持續在利率、公司債和逐漸增加的政府公債等主要市場中支持估值的結果。

首先,投資組合的存續期間(利率部位)在本月再次回升,從一月份的2.6年增加到約2.8年。這是因為隨著殖利率急劇上升,核心政府公債受到關注。這促使我們主要透過增加美國公債和英國公債來減少我們的對存續期間的避險。

在公司債方面,我們將基金對投資級債的配置比例維持在43-44%,而中性配置為33.3%。儘管我們仍然更偏好景氣循環的公司的和較長天期的公司債,但我們一直在削減美國的部位,轉而選擇一些品質更高的歐洲公司債和一些英國AAA級房地產抵押債券。

本基金對於高收益債的配置仍然低於基準指標(目前佔13-14%,而中性配置為33.3%),儘管我們在本月內稍微增加了高收益債的曝險,以爭取更多估值有吸引力的公司。例如,我們買進諸如Charter Communications(美國電信公司)和Pemex(墨西哥國有石油公司)之類的公司。

在股票方面,儘管整體配置保持在4%到5%,但我們買進了Repsol和Cisco等一些公司。我們也買進了一些全球製藥公司必治妥施貴寶(Bristol-Myers Squibb)的股票。

我們在政府公債方面交易較頻繁,因為我們在新興市場中發現了一些良好的機會,買進了阿曼、哥倫比亞和克羅埃西亞,並增持了羅馬尼亞和塞爾維亞的主權債。在德拉吉宣誓就任意大利新總理之後,我們還增持了一些長天期的外圍政府公債,因為殖利率曲線仍然陡峭,而政治風險已大大降低。在這方面,我們買入義大利的BTP(包含通膨連結債券)、西班牙和葡萄牙。最後,我們買入了近幾週承壓的澳洲30年期債券(因此從我們的角度來看它變得更具吸引力),使得澳洲央行進行干預。

年初至今,大多數資產類別都經歷了一定程度的價格波動,而債券的波動幅度更大,但本基金在1月和2月均有正報酬。在一年內,我們認為,與同業相比本基金的績效已經恢復良好,這要歸功於我們的利率部位(在2020年的多數時間裡均在增加)以及存續期間較短(為2021年勝出的關鍵)。

 
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