【收益優化】2020年12月基金評論

市場現況:

市場在年底推出有效疫苗後,表現良好。12月,此正面情緒也受到財政與貨幣政策帶動,從三月低點以來,刺激措施一直穩定推升資產價格。與此同時,極具傳染力的變種病毒擴散,造成進一步封鎖,使投資人擔憂。但不可諱言地,大多數資產在這一年中都有所成長,其中包括貴金屬、美國股票、新興市場股票和高收益債券在內的各項資產類別均表現出色。然而,有一些表現落後的資產值得注意,例如石油、銀行股票和歐洲股市。

除了全球資產外,本月還有一些地方性的好消息:美國共和黨和民主黨就9,000億美元的經濟刺激方案達成協議;歐洲央行增加5,000億歐元的購債計畫;英國在數月的談話與協商之後終於與歐盟完成脫歐貿易協議。

固定收益資產方面,核心政府公債表現各異:英國公債因脫歐達成協議而價格上漲,而美國與德國公債因資金流向風險性資產而下跌。投資級債受益於風險偏好增加:美國、英國、歐盟的投資級公司債均表現佳。本月高收益債也表現良好,特別是美國公司,自三月起表現也相當穩定。

在此情況下,基金表現優異,12月與今年整年表現為穩定正報酬。12月基金表現主要受到投資級債與股票拉抬。存續期間的效益大致平緩。然而,由於投資組合中持有高收益債較基準指標較少,造成高收益債的強勁表現相對而言有所降低。

投組調整:

如同我們在2020下半年的操作,我們穩定減少投資組合內的信用風險,主要在長天期美元投資級公司債和表現強勁的英國公司債(希思羅機場是一個好例子)。儘管持續縮減信用風險,投資級債仍是我們最大的籌碼,維持配置在40%左右。

我們在高收益債的曝險部位為12%,賣出一些在本月表現良好的公司,其中一個例子為勞斯萊斯(Rolls Royce),該債券在12月上漲10%,此豪華汽車製造商的債券受到許多高收益投資人的青睞。

我們的存續期間大部分來自德國公債,其次為美元與英鎊計價資產。我們認為,儘管金融市場正在復甦,核心政府公債殖利率仍於區間波動。如果通膨/經濟復甦高於預期,我們仍然認為會有下行風險,並且由於利率已經在零附近,因此潛在上漲空間很小。 股票方面,我們減碼Daimler,該股票在2020年上漲逾20%。我們仍然主要偏好價值股,包括近期受到經濟封鎖影響的股價,但當未來經濟重啟時,仍有上漲潛力的價值股。股票部位目前在歷史水準的3.5-4%左右。

無風險部位(現金和政府債券)接近年初的水準(介於35-40%之間)。我們大部分的政府公債部位持有德國公債,而本月我們買入一些日本通膨連結債,因其仍以極低的通膨/通縮定價,且是極少數具有正實質殖利率的核心政府債券。

如同我們之前所說,展望2021年,世界正在經歷T形衰退:經濟急遽下降,再恢復至先前水準。問題是,在「T」交叉處有多高。鑑於服務業一直是封鎖後經濟衰退和政府行動的主要受害者,因此迅速經濟重啟可能意味著,在極端情況下我們甚至已接近T型衰退。經濟反彈越低,利率風險越好,信用風險越差,反之亦然,這是債券投資的經濟展望相當重要的原因。但是,目前採取利率期限的風險報酬模式有所偏誤:如果利率持續在0附近,則從利率的進一步下跌中獲利的機會有限。這已在今年債券投資的市場中得到證實。

基於總體與個體的理由,我們需要擺脫利率維持在零附近的情況,這需要央行與政府的密切合作。在這個情況下,財政與貨幣政策將需維持寬鬆一段時間,而需要央行印製鈔票以提供擺脫零利率的方法,此類政策通常會導致高成長和通膨,這對經濟和信用風險而言是利多,但長天期債券殖利率將上升。

 
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