【入息】2021年2月基金評論

市場現況:

二月份,大部份股票市場收紅,儘管經濟快速復甦的預期增加對較高通膨率與政府公債殖利率上升的擔憂。此預期造成債券殖利率大幅上升,且使投資者風險偏好降低。財政和貨幣政策的刺激(特別是美國方面)、各國央行的支持、公司優於預期的營收,與新冠疫苗施打人數增加,提振股市在市場信心回復前即已達到歷史新高。

經濟逐漸復甦激勵循環性與商品相關產業的表現,如礦業與銀行業。然而,依賴借款的高成長公司則受到拖累,如科技業。以當地貨幣計價的最大報酬來自日本、歐洲、義大利、法國與西班牙股市。由於疫苗施打的支撐,英國的中型股也有良好的報酬。相反地,中國股市微幅下跌,新興市場與那斯達克股市也在本月拉回。

長天期政府公債價格下跌,因為儘管央行重申希望維持低利率,市場仍有升息預期。十年期與三十年期的美國公債殖利率在今年達到歷史新高。公司債表現較佳,而其殖利率高於投資級債。

本月基金溫和上漲,股票的強勁表現被長天期美國公債抵銷。

股票方面,美國、歐洲和日本的銀行股為主要貢獻者,受到投資者對該地區的經濟成長樂觀,與較高的債券殖利率拉抬。日本股市也有亮眼報酬率,儘管日圓貶值。 美國醫療和科技類股、韓國股票與公司債拖累基金表現。新興市場主權債也影響基金報酬,主因為當地貨幣疲軟,特別是墨西哥披索。

然而,最大拖累者為基金投組佔一定比例的美國長天期公債,我們持有目的為在經濟下行的情形下,分散股票風險。由於投資人對經濟復甦的信心增強,因此開始猜測央行何時會升息以降低通膨率,造成債券價格下跌。

我們認為市場過度擔憂通膨的上升。通膨率較難達到美國聯準會的目標,即使美國財政刺激措施通過,因為這是一次性的政策。此外,需求也不會永遠上升,因為公司會做出相應調整。由於勞動市場仍脆弱,所以我們認為通膨率不會快速上升。現今的失業率表示近期薪資不太可能上漲。如果投資者擔心將受到通膨上升的影響,那我們會預期短天期政府公債殖利率也會上升,但實際上他們變動不大。在我們看來,債券市場近期的劇烈波動並非基於經濟基本面,我們認為因是暫時性的。

部位調整:

二月初,金融類股表現強勁後,我們決定減少美國、歐洲與日本金融類股的持股。然而,我們仍持有金融類股,因為期待受益於經濟復甦的前景,另外也在升息真的發生時,提供保護。在檢視要減碼哪些部位時,我們會衡量近期表現、殖利率,與ESG概念。

我們也在殖利率仍高時,買進葡萄牙政府公債。歐洲政府公債價格大幅下降,而葡萄牙債券殖利率上升。此加碼部位可以幫助分散政府公債風險、提供現金沒有的殖利率優勢,與在市場避險情緒增加時予以支持。同時,我們進一步降低股票比重,減少亞洲、日本、美國和歐洲的部位。

 
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