【入息】2020年12月基金評論

市場現況:

在充滿大事的2020年最後一個月,因投資者視部分國家通過疫苗接種為全球經濟可能復甦的信號,因此本月風險性資產維持正報酬。其他樂觀的信號包括:避免英國無協議脫歐以及美國最終簽署一項經濟刺激計劃。

這些好消息消弭了因全球新冠肺炎確診人數上升而導致英國、美國和日本等國重啟對旅遊和集會限制的憂慮。然而,更具傳染性的變種病毒已經被發現。

股票市場強勁上漲,且許多股市都達多年來新高:美國股票指數今年收在歷史新高;表現最亮眼的市場為科技股為主的美國納斯達克指數、中國、其他新興市場與英國中型股指數,由於英國與歐盟達成協議,有序脫歐。相對地,一些歐洲股市表現落後,在11月強勁上漲後便漲幅停止。

投資者對於債券市場的風險偏好上升:新興市場債券及高收益債表現優於大盤。核心政府公債的表現各異:美國公債微幅下跌,而德國、英國與義大利公債上漲。

基金上漲,其中大部分表現由我們持有的股票帶動,尤其是日本與在銀行業保持領先的美國。歐洲股市表現落後,歐洲銀行股在前一個月表現強勁之後表現疲軟。新興市場貨幣的復甦帶動南非、哥倫比亞和智利政府公債的獲利。12月,本基金主要受長天期美國公債拖累,公債價格在本月下跌,而美元疲軟加劇跌幅。

總體而言,強勢歐元對美元和日元是不利因素,儘管避險活動(基金資產至少70%必須持有或避險歐元)降低了這種影響。

部分國家推出疫苗無疑是令人鼓舞的,但短期仍存在不確定性,尤其是為應對新冠肺炎確診人數持續上升與更具傳染性的變種病毒而實施嚴格限制措施對經濟的影響。根據最終可能會解決新冠肺炎危機的免疫策略之時機和效率,我們希望在未來12到18個月內,公司獲利能夠恢復正常。如果發生這種情況,我們可以預期自3月以來表現落後的公司和類股復甦,包括銀行、消費者服務和一般的「價值型」股票,這些資產將至少回收部分損失。這只是一些我們在最近「風險偏好事件」 (例如11月因推出疫苗的反彈)中看到的價格走勢。

作為收益型基金,銀行逐漸開始發放股利令人振奮。歐洲和英國的監管機構表示,他們將允許恢復有限的配息,而美國聯準會已取消發放股利和股票回購的禁令。

部位調整:

在11月減少股票部位之後,我們對於目前投組感到滿意,儘管部位具有一定的風險偏好立場,整體而言是相當中立的,因此,12月份沒有重大的部位調整。投資組合維持加碼股票,並增持公司債和新興市場主權債。為了在出現壞消息時提供保護,我們也持有一定比例的美國長天期政府公債。

我們謹記核心思想—期待驚喜—我們隨時準備應對潛在波動性可能帶來的投資機會。

 
This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 125 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1AR.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America.