【入息】2020年10月基金評論

市場現況:

十月份,由於新冠疫情確診人數再度增加,特別是在歐洲和美國地區,使投資者信心下降。許多國家實施旅遊與社交聚集的限制令,造成經濟復甦趨緩。雖然在第三季,許多國家的GDP都強勁回彈,然而第四季的GDP增幅可能會下降。

十月份,美國仍未出抬新的刺激計畫,且美國總統大選的不確定性也持續增加。好消息是,第三季度企業財報顯示,多數企業表現都優於悲觀的預期。

多數股票市場表現不佳,部分創下自三月以來最大跌幅。德國和其他歐洲國家,以及英國與美國跌幅最深,而香港、中國和其他新興市場國家股市走升。

固定收益市場本月表現良好,因為投資者避險情緒上升。歐洲公債價格受義大利公債拉抬上升,新興市場公債價格也上升,而美國公債價格下跌。大部分公司債價格溫和上升,其中高收益債券表現優於投資級債。

M&G入息基金報酬下跌,因為股票持有比重較高。主要的拖累因子來自歐洲與日本,德國與法國的銀行類股表現不佳,日本的鐵路相關股票表現疲軟。本基金的美國持股表現平緩,由於金融類股的良好表現被科技類股下跌抵銷。

本基金持有的美國公債表現也受公債殖利率上升拖累,因為市場預期當民主黨在美國總統大選中獲勝後,有望增加發債規模。儘管如此,我們仍然認為長天期美國公債有重要的避險功能。當經濟再度衰退或出現經濟衝擊時,持有長天期美國公債可以達到避險功能。這個現象在十月並沒有發生,我們認為此時債券價格變動是受到投資者信心變動影響,而不是對經濟的憂慮。

部位調整:

我們認為,未來經濟可能發展的趨勢比三月時好轉。投資人對當前的經濟風險有更多了解,且各國政府和央行都願意為經濟提供大量支持,因此我們認為當前的投資策略可以較為偏向於風險性資產,例如股票、債券,以及新興市場公債,並透過持有長天期美國公債來分散風險。

儘管十月份股票價格下跌,我們沒有調整資產配置。股票持有比重已經接近一般範圍的較高水平,且我們不希望透過減持美國公債來買進更多股票。

 
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