【入息】2021年9月基金評論

市場現況:

受一系列令人擔憂的因素影響,9月市場投資人情緒惡化。其中包括對高通膨的擔憂,特別是在能源價格迅速上漲和全球供應鏈遇到瓶頸的情況下。這促使中央銀行上調他們對通膨的預測,這又引發了利率可能比預期更早上升的猜想。全球經濟成長放緩的現象也讓投資者感到不安,一些研調單位開始談論停滯通膨。風險偏好也因中國的事件承壓,中國政府持續打擊科技公司,且中國大型房地產開發商恆大似乎正走向違約,使中國的金融體系受到威脅。中國還遭受了由煤炭短缺、高需求和更嚴格的碳排放限制所引發的電力危機,引發市場對經濟成長存疑。

大多數股市和債市於本月下跌。在股票市場中,美股領跌,尤其是以科技股為重的納斯達克指數,主因為受到更高利率前景的打擊。而由於許多中國大型的科技企業以及恆大地產都在香港上市,港股於本月也陷入衰退。日本則是少數較不受市場賣壓影響的市場,由於近期政治環境轉變頗受好評;富時100指數的表現也相對較好,得益於較高的石油庫存和英鎊的疲軟。

類股方面,資訊科技類股領跌;而金融類股則受到債券殖利率上升的支持上漲。此外,石油和天然氣價格上升推動能源股上漲。

政府債券市場在預期通膨將上升的環境下殖利率顯著上升。英國、德國、美國和新興市場債同樣因高通膨預期而表現落後,其中又以英國公債表現較弱,而高收益公司債則表現相對較優。

在貨幣市場,美元相對於大多數其他貨幣升值;英鎊及歐元則相對走弱。

本基金獲得負報酬,其中大部分虧損來自於債券配置,尤其是新興市場債券,包含智利、巴西和南非,而匯率波動加劇債券價格的疲軟。而儘管美元走強,我們持有的美國政府債仍然產生了負的報酬。

基金於股票配置總體上是正向的,持有日股貢獻了大部分報酬。歐洲和美國銀行的部位也表現優良,主要因銀行業受益更高利率的預期。然而,美國的科技股以及香港和韓國的持股,則拖累了績效表現。

由於高通膨可能影響所有資產種類表現,因此我們持續評估潛在的高通膨對美國收益率曲線短期的影響。我們仍然相信,維持現有部位能受益於進一步的經濟成長和適度提升的市場利率,同時若成長不如預期時適度分散投資風險。

部位調整:

我們認為不應該對市場波動性上升過度反應。以目前的經濟環境而言,基金在金融類股和長天期美國公債的配置能平衡其餘股票部位和新興市場公債表現。因此,我們沒有進行基金部位的調整,但仍保持彈性以應對市場環境改變。

 
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