【入息】2021年8月基金評論

市場現況:

整體而言,2021年8月積極因素大於消極因素,投資人對風險接受度高,股票表現良好,而大多數債券則表現落後。美國聯準會的鴿派作風,不急於將過去對加快經濟復甦起到很大幫助的寬鬆貨幣政策收緊,持續提振市場情緒。7月份強勁的就業數據和美國大規模基礎設施支出法案的通過,再加上全球強勁的企業盈餘,進一步讓對投資人緩解,對於新冠疫情變種病毒確診數增加、供應鏈中斷、中國政府對於科技業加強監管和中國經濟成長放緩的憂慮。

受美國市場表現連續創下新高的助力,全球股票價格指數在本月月底接近歷史高位;德國DAX指數和英國mid-cap指數也達到前所未有的水平。阿根廷和印度等新興市場也出現強勁反彈。 與此同時,香港和巴西市場下跌,而中國市場則落後。

類股方面,受益於良好的盈餘表現,資訊技術股領漲;而金融類股則受到債券殖利率上升的支持上漲。此外,原物料的生產下跌,石油和天然氣庫存也受到商品價格下跌的影響。

採購經理人指數、耐用品訂單和零售銷售等經濟數據從近期高位回落,這使得一些呼籲應提前退出或逐漸縮減刺激政策的市場聲音失去動力。通膨部分,美國和英國的通膨略有放緩,但歐洲通膨則持續。

政府債券市場在風險偏好環境下受到一定影響,殖利率小幅上升。儘管高收益公司債券和新興市場債券上漲,但投資級信貸相對持平。

在貨幣市場,美元相對於大多數其他貨幣升值;英鎊走弱;歐元相對於英鎊升值,而新興市場貨幣從近期的疲軟中復甦。

本基金獲得正報酬,其中大部分收益來自於股票配置,尤其是美國的科技股和金融股,以及歐洲銀行。公司債券穩定增值,而在我們持有的新興市場政府債券中,南非和哥倫比亞債券的收益被秘魯和智利債券的下跌所抵消。主權債券溫和下跌,但美元走強抵消了美國公債的疲軟。

目前,投資者不再對新冠疫情確診率和通膨的上漲感到憂心。與此同時,經濟數據表現也顯示經濟正進一步復甦,且並未預測到央行的政策即將產生變化。

因此,在基本面數據或投資者情緒沒有任何變動的情況下,我們將維持輕微的風險偏好及多元化的股票曝險,我們認為可以從未來持續成長的經濟中受益。不過我們也相信,如果未來發生任何變化,我們會有足夠的靈活性來調整投資組合。

部位調整:

我們認為,現階段的投資組合定位適合當前的投資前景。未來若經濟進一步成長或殖利率小幅上升,將對我們的股票偏向定位有利;而若意外地出現負成長,我們持有的美國公債也能夠提供多元化投資策略。因此,8月份我們沒有做出重大的投資組合變動。

 
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