【入息】2021年6月基金評論

市場現況:

六月份,由於各國央行發表的言論普遍穩定人心,投資者對通膨上升的擔憂情緒減弱,風險資產普遍利多。聯準會(Fed)、歐洲央行和英國央行均表示,現階段較高的物價指數應該是暫時的,並承諾近期不會加息。此外,隨著疫苗接種計劃的穩步推進,股票市場繼續維持上揚趨勢,本月也有一些市場創下歷史新高。

然而,聯準會對於升息的態度似乎更加強硬,許多政策制定者預期加息的時間點會比預測的時間點更早到來,導致美元相對於歐元、英鎊及幾個新興市場貨幣強勁走強。強勁的美元會打壓新興市場和大宗商品,六月份即是如此。

另外,市場仍然存在一些不會產生立即影響,但需要持續追蹤的背景因素。其一是 Delta 變種病毒的興起,導致英國的解封被推遲,以及造成澳洲、泰國和馬來西亞的封城,另一則是美國和中國之間緊張局勢的恢復。

本月全球股票主要受美國股市走強的推動,價格接近歷史最高水平。歐股也上漲,但幅度較小,而亞洲市場則滯後。

隨著對升息的擔憂緩解,成長股表現優於價值股,又以科技股表現最佳。另一方面,旅行限制的可能性給運輸公司帶來壓力,而較低的債券收益率阻礙了業績銀行股。

固定收益市場出現了一些有趣的價格走勢,聯準會的新立場打壓了對潛在利率變化較敏感的短天期政府公債,導致其收益率上升。另一方面,較長期的主權債券收益率下降,收益率曲線趨於平緩。目前對於信貸市場普遍樂觀,儘管新興市場債券走弱。

本基金六月上漲,大部分持股為正回報,最大貢獻是30年期的美國政府公債。由於投資者接納中央銀行的說法,儘管通膨目前持續上升,但通膨僅會是暫時的,不會立即性緊縮貨幣政策,因此長天期政府公債收益率下降。然而,較低的收益率對我們持有的英國和歐洲金融機構的股票產生稍有貶值的負面影響。

其餘大多數股票表現良好,尤其是美國的科技股和日本的工業股。歐元的相對疲軟提振了一些股票的價值,特別是美國和日本的股票:強勢的美元促使美國的政府公債、公司債及股票價格上漲,日元的走強也讓我們的股票受益。巴西黑奧和墨西哥披索也相對於歐元升值,支撐了巴西和墨西哥的政府債券表現。針對六月份最大拖累因素,則是我們的對沖活動。由於我們的基金至少有 70% 是以歐元形式持有或對沖回歐元,讓我們錯過了美元的強勢機會。

自從新冠肺炎疫情開始,政府和中央銀行施加的經濟提振政策基本上是有效的,今日的全球經濟表現,也比去年同期當時對於現在的預測來的好。投資者現在正在思考各國央行何時收回經濟提振政策,以及此做為可能造成的非預期後果。目前,我們對景氣循環保持樂觀,但隨著經濟數據和央行言論的更新,仍須對潛在的波動和未來偶發性的價格走勢做足謹慎準備。因此,我們正對投資組合進行定位,藉由向市場周期和價值領域靠攏的股票配置,來保持在未來的馳譽復甦中有所參與。然而,持有潛在多元化資產,例如美國長天期政府公債,如果市場出現意外的負成長,多元化資產也會讓我們的整體資產配置有不同的反應。我們也會嘗試去持有適當比例的穩定持股,以便在市場波動或回調出現我們認為具有吸引力的投資機會時,進行部署。

部位調整:

針對六月份的投資組合,我們並沒有重大更改,但如果未來的波動性帶來投資機會,我們會及時調整投資組合以抓緊投資機會。

 
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