摘要
- 雖然較高的投入成本可能對企業獲利造成影響，但隨著日本的財政狀況改善，使政府具有政策空間，能在短期內推出生活成本相關措施，以緩減石油上漲帶來的衝擊。
- 提升投資組合韌性的關鍵在於分散超額報酬與風險來源，並堅持以基本面及估值為依據。我們仍看好日本股市的中長期前景。
儘管面臨地緣政治緊張局勢及貨幣波動的複雜環境，日本股市年初至今表現強勁，東證股價指數以日圓計上升13.0%。雖然日本整體股市已連續多年獲得強勁報酬，並出現重新評級，但主動型投資人仍能發掘投資機會。受惠於企業治理改革、資本效率提升以及國內需求逐漸復甦等結構性利多因素，日本股市的中期前景仍然樂觀。然而，鑑於當前市場漲勢主要由動能驅動，我們認為透過精挑細選的主動選股策略來創造報酬，將顯得更加重要
1.美伊戰爭引發石油及其他原物料供應受阻，對日本企業獲利帶來什麼潛在影響？
最新估計顯示，日本擁有相當於約8個月的戰略及商業石油儲備，為應對短期供應中斷帶來緩衝。然而，由於日本進口原油中約95% 來自中東，若荷姆茲海峽持續關閉，石油及其他原物料的進口成本將會隨之增加。雖然企業可將部分成本轉嫁予終端消費者及家庭，但企業獲利仍將受到影響，尤其中下游石油相關產業及運輸業預計將面臨最大衝擊。
2.通膨加劇對實際薪資成長有何影響？
根據日本近期公佈的通膨數據，4月整體通膨率降至1.4%，主因為政府燃氣補貼措施的影響，而核心及超核心（core-core）通膨指標也見下降。
然而，日本銀行預測2026及2027財年超核心通膨率將為2.6%，凸顯了該央行預期通膨環境偏向結構性，並由服務價格通膨及薪資成長所主導。這些發展形勢的根本原因是勞工短缺，而相關情況預計將持續存在。
短期而言，能源價格及貨幣強弱將決定實際薪資成長的走向。與此同時，最新跡象顯示，薪資談判的結果預計將與近年水平相當。長遠而言，結構性勞工短缺及名目薪資持續成長將促進實際薪資逐步回升，後者是推動國內消費及需求增強的關鍵因素。
3.日本銀行會否繼續升息？這將如何影響日本股市前景？
日本銀行在4月召開的貨幣政策會議顯示政策委員會的意見分歧，其中有3名委員投票支持升息。美伊戰爭持續進行，推高能源及投入成本，並促使日本銀行上調通膨預測。日圓走弱也加劇進口通膨壓力。受這些因素的共同影響，市場對6月或7月升息的預期上漲。
我們預計升息不會對日本股市產生重大影響。由於實際利率仍接近零，對大部分企業而言，循序漸進的升息預計將不會顯著增加利息支出。
4. 你如何解讀近期日圓走勢？
過去三個月，油價高檔導致能源進口成本上漲，推高了對美元的需求，令日圓的賣壓增加。
美元兌日圓匯率曾升至約160，日本財務省先後在4月底及5月入市干預。與大部分匯率干預措施一樣，除非宏觀經濟環境發生重大變化，否則其影響預計將屬暫時性。最值得注意的是，只有油價回落，日圓面對的賣壓才會減輕。
5. 日本企業治理改革進展如何？
監管方面，金融廳及東京證券交易所最近提出修訂方案，旨在激勵企業動用資產負債表中數以千億計的現金。
這股改革動力也在投資組合中展現︰我們持有的汽車、零售、保險、化工、工業及科技企業均已公佈提升資本效率及改善股東報酬的計劃。整體市場的配息及股份回購活動幾乎未見放緩跡象。
6. 今年投資團隊的哪些投資在帶來較佳表現？
2025年第二季度美國下調關稅期間，我們增加多隻表現落後的科技股，隨後，相關股票在今年表現領先於大盤。這種逆向投資策略的報酬尤其強勁，原因是我們未有追捧較為擁擠，且估值偏高人工智慧主題。此外，由於利率持續正常化的趨勢利多銀行淨利差，加上強勁企業借貸帶動貸款組合擴張及整體獲利能力提升，我們的金融持股也表現出色。我們的主動選股策略也發揮作用，建築、製藥及汽車零件的選股帶來超額報酬。
7. 自美伊戰爭爆發以來，你的投資觀點或策略有何改變？
由於化工及原物料產業在1月及2月表現強勁，我們對相關持股的立場轉趨審慎。結果證明此舉相當及時，這些產業的多間企業面臨顯著的石化投入成本風險，因此容易受到當前地緣政治緊張局勢影響。
相較於預測美伊戰爭走勢，我們更專注於既有投資流程，致力發掘估值偏低的投資機會。我們將資金輪轉至偏向防守型及以國內市場為主的企業，包括醫療保健、醫療設備及消費服務的精選企業，相較於市場熱門且交易擁擠的板塊，進場機會更為吸引，超額報酬潛力也更大。
8. 展望未來，哪些領域蘊藏投資機會？以及你將如何應對當前總體經濟及地緣政治挑戰？
除了上述防禦型及以國內市場為主的企業外，我們也看好工業股，原因是自2025年第四季以來，自動化相關企業的整體資本支出週期轉趨正面。
由於科技產業表現強勁，我們正密切關注科技持股的表現。投資人對我們部分重點投資的關注度與日俱增，市場情緒也迅速轉為樂觀。雖然人工智慧相關產業的資本支出及獲利動力仍然強勁，但我們採取較審慎部署，並傾向避免在估值過高時入市。另一方面，近期表現落後的軟件產業或提供值得關注的投資機會。
我們認為，維持多元化的超額報酬及風險來源相當重要，尤其是在市場由少數股票領升的環境。我們的投資不依賴單一市場趨勢或敘事，並受多項推動因素支持：人工智慧、薪資及通貨膨脹正常化、持續的資本支出上行週期、企業改革、景氣復甦及特殊企業事件。
近期的宏觀經濟及地緣政治發展形勢出乎意料，凸顯以基本面及估值為依據的投資策略對於增強投資組合韌性的重要性。我們始終秉持主動投資策略，並繼續看好日本股市的中長期前景。
更多文章
Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.
Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.
Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).
Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).
United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.
European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.
United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.
Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.
The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.
Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.
Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.
Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).