摘要
- 我們專注為投資組合創造穩健收益，並在通膨與利率見頂趨勢更為明確時，延長存續期。亞洲貨幣前景分歧，預計將影響亞洲當地貨幣債券報酬表現。
- 我們看好國際收支平衡狀況較佳的經濟體，相關貨幣包括新加坡元及澳元。
- 亞洲信用市場目前處於有利位置，以投資級別債券為主的摩根大通亞太信用指數投資範圍具備優勢，能夠應對通膨上升及成長放緩的環境。
隨著通膨憂慮升溫，美國10年期國庫債券殖利率已由2026年低位上升逾50個基點。在此環境下，亞洲債券（以摩根大通亞洲信用綜合總報酬指數衡量）今年仍稍為上升（+0.8%），表現領先全球債券（+0.1%）。
近期債券拋售導致殖利率上升，你認為目前是否延長存續期的時機？
Rong Ren︰ 即使收益率殖利率在近期上升，我們對於延長存續期仍持審慎態度，因未來數月公佈的數據料將預計將反映通脹通膨壓力增強。除了能源價格上升外，預計食品價格亦也跟隨化學肥料化肥價格上漲——據估計，全球30%至35%化學肥料化肥貿易途經霍爾木茲海峽荷姆茲海峽。因此，收益率殖利率可能持續高企高檔。
亞洲方面，市場的政策觀點已由2025年的降息，轉為2026年傾向維持利率不變或升息。個別亞洲央行或因近期貨幣走弱而考慮升息。美國方面，雖然市場定價目前預期2026年餘下時間將升息20個基點，2027年將升息30個基點，但由於通膨前景持續演變，利率前景仍未明朗。
除非市場長期聚焦於全球經濟成長放緩，否則債券市場預計將難以持續上升。儘管如此，若中東衝突得以迅速解決，市場短期內有望在出現釋壓反彈。在此情況下，投資人可能不會聚焦於短期通膨衝擊——即使荷姆茲海峽重新開放，原油運輸量仍然需要數月時間才能恢復正常。
面對這種環境，我們對存續期採取戰術性中性部署，而非低配立場。我們將尋求在通膨及利率見頂趨勢更為明確時延長存續期。
你認為亞洲本地貨幣債券市場的潛在機遇與風險何在？
Rong Ren︰隨著亞洲當地貨幣利率市場及匯市在5月遭拋售，投資價值已經顯現。然而，鑑於亞洲各地的貨幣前景各異，我們仍然精挑細選。能源價格上升預計將影響通膨及經濟活動，政策取捨將會變得更困難。因此，預計國際收支平衡狀況較佳的經濟體將表現更好。
我看好澳元債券，因其收益吸引。2026年，儘管亞洲多間央行維持利率不變或放寬貨幣政策，澳洲儲備銀行一直是立場偏鷹派的亞洲央行之一。與此同時，新加坡元債券（以Markit iBoxx亞洲當地貨幣債券新加坡總報酬指數衡量）年初至今上升3.0%。新加坡元債券預計將持續受惠於新加坡元的避險地位以及當地經濟的相對韌性。儘管近期銀行發債量增加，企業債券供應環境仍然利多，預計將支撐新加坡元信用市場。鑒於泰國經濟前景疲弱，預計泰國央行不會升息，因此較長期泰國主權債券也是值得注意的投資機會。此外，人工智慧資本支出週期擴大也利多韓圜及新台幣表現。
另一方面，我對高收益貨幣（印度盧比、印尼盾及菲律賓披索）前景的看法較為保守。能源價格維持高檔預計將進一步削弱相關國家的國際收支平衡狀況。此外，相關國家的股市並未受惠於當前人工智慧投資主題，難以吸引外國投資組合資金流入，進而拖累貨幣表現。
能源價格上升對亞洲信用品質有什麼影響？
Clement︰年初至今，亞洲信用債（投資級別及高收益級別）表現領先美國同類信用債。亞洲企業的基本面仍相對穩健，因此越來越多企業轉趨審慎，而影響程度將取決於中東衝突的持續時間。隨着製造商面臨更長交貨時間及更高投入成本，企業淨利率受壓，導致獲利預測下調的個案開始增加。相關影響將拖累獲利而非資產負債表，對各產業的影響程度也有所不同。見圖1。
圖1. 亞洲能源價格上升的傳導機制
資料來源︰瀚亞投資。2026年5月。
其中一個緩和因素是亞洲企業目前處於有利位置。投資級別債券的債務／稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤比率等信用指標仍然相對穩健，而非投資等級債券的相關指標也大致持穩。年初至今，信用信用評級上調及下調的數量也相當平衡。雖然我們對印度、印尼及菲律賓宏觀前景的看法偏向審慎，但亞洲其他市場的表現相當穩健。產業層面的情況同樣如此：煉油、運輸及汽車產業更容易受到能源價格上升及供應鏈受阻的影響，而其他產業則預計將能駕馭這段艱難時期。見圖2。作為基準指數，摩根大通亞太指數主要涵蓋投資級別債券，而我們認為，易受上述挑戰影響的主權債券或產業的比重處於可控水平。不過由於信用利差依然相對狹窄，精選標的仍然至關重要。
圖2. 摩根大通亞太指數權重分佈（百分比）
資料來源：摩根大通亞太信用指數。2026年5月14日。
你如何在當前環境下配置投資組合？
Rong Ren：我們將繼續專注為投資組合創造穩健收益，同時在信用品質、流動性及下檔風險方面嚴守投資紀律。
信用市場方面，我們繼續尋找機會，嚴謹增持因技術面而非基本面惡化而導致利差增加的發行人。由於市場上升範圍狹窄且升幅集中，證券篩選更顯重要。
風險管理及靈活部署也是應對任何潛在後續衝擊的關鍵。我們需妥善管理存續期，以應對即將來臨的通膨衝擊，並在成長更趨明顯時重新評估延長存續期的時機。
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