【印度溫度計】印度股市修正快 逐步接近加碼階段

在原油及糧食價格帶頭下,全球通膨率衝高,受到全球央行升息緊縮資金、債券殖利率飆高及景氣衰退壓力等外圍因素,印度股市6月以來遭遇一波快速修正。

根據瀚亞投資與ICICI保誠資產管理提供的印度溫度計指數來看,隨著股市急速修正而下滑,最新指標連續下降至114.7,投資建議維持「股債平衡配置」,在目前全球股市短期波動擴大階段,以定期定額介入為佳。

另參考Morgan Stanley DMA技術指標,顯示印度股逐漸進入加碼階段,預期在強勁的經濟成長趨勢下,可視為修正拉回為短空長多,建議持續抱住相關資產部位。

印度央行進入升息軌道

繼5月閃電升息兩碼,印度央行RBI 如預期於6月宣布再升息50bp,基準利率來到4.9%。瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,RBI調升全年通膨率至6.7%,預計持續回收寬鬆,專注預防通膨升溫,但維持全年GDP增長7.2%目標不變。

市場預期,今年8月、9月及12月都分別有50、35、25bp的升息動作,另外,2023年可能再升息75bp。政策利率將從目前4.9%調升2023年中5.7%。

經濟數據維持高檔

從經濟基本面來看,包括企業所得稅、PMI等數據都在高檔,其中PMI指數仍創2008年以來歷史新高,經濟數據更突破今年初的高原期,5月更持續創新高。

此外,從今年1~3月季報來看,獲利年增21%、季增6%,依舊非常強勁並優於預期。MSCI 印度企業獲利成長預估,今明兩年平均增長約有15%,維持高速成長趨勢,金融業更是主要貢獻的產業。

仍須留意的是,2022-2023年企業獲利可能將受到能源與食品價格上漲影響,企業對於原物料上漲雖有壓力,但對於農村消費復甦仍抱以樂觀視之。從各項經濟數據表現可以見得,印度已經完全脫離疫情影響,甚至是回到疫情前的經濟高增長時期。

快速修正視為短空長多

印度股市近期修正主要受到外圍環境所影響,並非內生性因素,經濟復甦強勁、產業結構完整、消費及信貸持續推升、政局結構穩定,加上印度央行已採取預防性升息動作,而非打壓經濟,故持續看好印度股市行情。

瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

印度溫度計分數:114.7

202205india

資料來源:ICICI保誠資產管理公司,2022/5
印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

警語
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