【亞洲高收益債券】2021年8月基金評論

市場總覽:

8月份,亞洲高收益債券的表現良好,摩根亞洲高收益債指數7月上漲2.07%。儘管美國利率上升,但此影響被信用利差收斂所抵消。

月初,美國高於預期的7 月非農就業數據以及聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 官員中支持減少債券購買的呼聲越來越高。然而,隨著上個月美國消費者信心下降至十年低點,美國國債收益率隨後走低,加上Delta 病毒的傳播不斷擴大,打壓了市場對經濟前景的樂觀情緒。此外,債券投資者也將聯準會主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會 (Jackson Hole)提到縮減購債並不會造成債券的恐慌賣壓。總體來說,2年期美國公債殖利率在8月份上升3個基點至0.21%;10年期美國公債殖利率上升9個基點至1.31%。

亞洲經濟數據顯示出成長放緩的跡象,原因為中國出現Delta病毒感染者,使受影響地區出現重新實施嚴格的封鎖。雖然出口仍保持彈性,債券投資兩年複合成長率以及工業和服務業產出年增率分別下滑至2.8%(6 月:年增5.7%)和5.6%(6 月:年增6.5%)。綜合採購經理人指數降至48.9,低於前期52.4。然而,儘管經濟復甦放緩,中國政府仍繼續在幾個方面進行監管改革,推動產業走向共同繁榮。本月,中國政府發布了一套草案禁止不正當競爭和限制在技術領域使用用戶數據的規定,同時限制在線年輕人的遊戲時間。引發了中國股市部分產業的輪動。

然而,儘管消息好壞參半,但信用市場的風險情緒保持良好,受到預期全球復甦情況依然樂觀,且聯準會也將耐心等待升息時機。風險情緒的支持使亞洲美元債市的信用利差,尤其是高收益債利差收斂。

亞洲高收債市場的漲幅由中國金融板塊領漲。尤其是中國五家國有企業將戰略性投資華融集團的消息提振市場信心,預計將有助於抵消公司在2020年的虧損。此外,中國和印尼高收益地產債,以及印度金屬和礦業也有強勁表現。

相比之下,消費和工業在本月的表現相對落後。

基金總覽:

8月份,基金表現優異,主要受中國地產和金融的提振。在中國高收益房地產大幅下跌後,吸引了投資人的興趣。然而,由於本基金加碼B評級,使基金的報酬率較低。投資人謹慎的情況下,B評級資產表現落後。在中國金融領域,本基金加碼中國華融是主要的獲利因素,因為其債券在戰略性投資者將注資的正面消息傳出後大幅反彈。在其他地區,儘管香港的資產抵消了部分收益,但印尼和印度高收益債的配置提振績效。

年初至今,亞洲高收益債市場經歷了充滿挑戰的市場環境,因為中國對槓桿的控制和對國內社會問題的關注,引發了投資人對於政府政策的不確定性。在此背景下,由於中國恆大在過去幾個月期間的大幅拋售影響市場情緒,本基金加碼中國房地產是主要影響基金的因素。同時對於中國政府隱性支持國企的質疑越來越多,也影響了部分企業表現。然而,在中國以外,高收債發行公司表現良好,尤其是高收益主權債券。在斯里蘭卡獲得流動性額度和新貸款的消息後,本基金受惠於斯里蘭卡的曝險。菲律賓和印尼的選債也幫助縮小年初至今表現不佳的情況。

未來展望:

全球經濟成長速度放緩,但全球商業活動仍持續擴張。美國和歐洲,強勁的國內需求下,8 月份的製造業活動保持良好,低庫存繼續支持產量和新訂單的擴張。這些國家較不易重啟經濟活動限制,而且許多國家至少對其人口進行了部分疫苗接種,因此儘管最近 COVID-19 感染病例激增,但各國政府在很大程度上仍保持經濟開放。

儘管如此,國家和部門之間的差異仍然顯著,並且可能會加深鑑於宏觀經濟基本穩定,由於疫苗接種率低而導致更嚴格的 COVID-19 限制削弱消費者的信心並減緩許多新興市場國家的經濟活動。例如,中國的服務業採購經理人指數出現下滑,這是中國在積極的病毒遏制戰略的支持下,八個月來首次出現這種情況。好消息是情況已有所好轉,新增病例明顯下降,不少城市已經重啟開放的過程。但是在亞洲其他地區,馬來西亞、泰國、越南和菲律賓等國每日新增感染人數仍居高不下,可能會繼續阻礙服務產業的活動。

總體而言,全球經濟復甦,加上耐心的聯準會升息動作,為亞洲債券提供支持。雖然聯準會預計今年將開始縮減購債規模,但市場已充分傳達了這一消息,不太可能引發另一波拋售。我們也關注中國政府控制槓桿的力道對房地產以及對科技業巨頭和民間教育產業的打擊也導致了不確定性增加。我們認為最近的監管行動反映了政府推動更高的社會平等,包含解決教育、醫療和住房成本高的三大議題,但並不意味著削弱特定企業或引發整個行業的崩潰。

然而,由於不確定性,亞洲高收益市場可能會經歷波動。恆大仍持續引起該產業投資人擔憂情緒。我們認為恆大的問題在很大程度上是非系統性的風險,雖然最近房地產銷售和價格的增長有所放緩,但近幾個月以來,他們仍然指出房地產銷售需求基本上具有彈性。從長遠來看,隨著時間的推移以及更嚴格的政策措施,將有助於市場紀律並推動債市基本面的改善。

因此,我們認為恆大事件蔓延的擔憂被過度解讀,使風險溢酬提升。根據彭博指數,中國高收益資產殖利率於9月第一周飆升至2020年3月以來最高。

然而,在我們看來,資產選擇是最重要的,因為負面市場情緒和政策環境提高了中國房地產公司的再融資風險,尤其是那些資產負債表較弱的公司。且由於市場預期房地產將持續存在產業風險,今年亞洲高收債的違約率也有所上升。因此,我們將持續尋求更穩健和適當的投資標的。



 
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