【亞洲高收益債券】2021年7月基金評論

市場總覽:

7月份,亞洲高收益債券的表現疲軟,摩根亞洲高收益債指數7月下跌3.64%。儘管美國利率下降,但對於中國房地產開發商狀況的擔憂,使高收益市場的情緒不佳。全球新冠疫情病例增加也抑制了成長展望。

本月,高度傳染性新冠變種病毒的持續傳播,和政策制定者的鴿派信號導致7月份美國公債 (UST) 的殖利率下降。10年期美國公債殖利率在7月份下跌25個基點至1.22%,而實質十年期殖利率(剔除未來十年通膨預期)降至歷史低點-1.18%。在美國經濟數據喜憂參半之際,美國公債(UST) 殖利率暴跌;雖然美國6月消費者物價指數(CPI) 通膨連續第五個月上升至5.40%,但製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)和工業成長低於預期。與此同時,聯準會主席鮑威爾在 7 月份的 FOMC 會議上稱美國經濟距離「實質性進一步進展」仍有「一段距離」,但並未給出具體的縮減購債時間。

在亞洲,最新的經濟數據顯示出成長放緩的跡象,因為亞洲各國持續與新一波的新冠疫情奮鬥,導致亞洲經濟體出現不同程度的封鎖。雖然出口仍保持彈性,但6月份製造業採購經理人指數顯示成長速度放緩。中國在7月份也發生了意外變化,中國人民銀行(PBOC)將存款準備金率下調50個基點。除了向經濟體系注入流動性外,中國當局在上個月季度政治經濟會議中也表示將對經濟提供更大的財政支持。

然而,中國寬鬆的貨幣和財政立場緩和了中國公司債市波動;雖然投資級債普遍受惠於美國利率下降,但中國政府對資訊科技和民間教育公司等產業的打擊引發了市場不安。中國房地產開發商的融資條件收緊也拖累了該產業的表現,中國恆大的負面新聞在本月加劇了這一情況。

恆大的債券價格持續受到評級下調和未支付供應商費用的影響。在恆大和其他幾家知名開發商債券被拋售的拖累下,中國高收益房地產如預期中的為7月份表現最差的板塊。這與中國金融和油氣高收益債市的強勁表現形成對比。

除了中國房地產外,由於市場對經濟成長的擔憂,印尼和印度的高收益企業債券也普遍表現疲軟。

基金總覽:

7月份,本基金表現不佳主因加碼中國高收益房地產,該產業受負面新聞的衝擊和更嚴格的融資條件影響,投資者情緒保守。具體而言,本基金加碼短天期恆大公司債影響基金表現。儘管市場持續存在擔憂,我們認為恆大透過出售非核心資產,去槓桿措施將可持續支持其償債能力。此外,加碼印尼高收益公司債也拖累表現。

年初至今,在美國利率波動加劇的挑戰下,本基金的表現落後基準指數,而中國對槓桿的控制和對國內社會問題的關注,引發了投資人對於政府政策的不確定性。在此背景下,由於中國恆大在6-7月期間的大幅拋售影響市場情緒,本基金加碼中國房地產是主要影響基金的因素。同時對於中國政府隱性支持國企的質疑越來越多,也影響了部分企業表現。然而,在中國以外,高收益發行公司表現良好,尤其是高收益主權債券。在斯里蘭卡獲得流動性額度和新貸款的消息後,本基金受惠於斯里蘭卡的曝險。菲律賓和印尼的積極選債也幫助縮小年初至今表現不佳的情況。

未來展望:

在過去的一個月裡,對新冠疫情的擔憂成為首要問題,因為不僅在亞洲,成熟國家感染率的上升也抑制了經濟成長。Delta變種病毒的高傳染性為控制病毒帶來了挑戰。許多亞洲經濟體仍在與不斷增加的新冠疫情病例作鬥爭,因此需要實施相對嚴格的封鎖措施。儘管如此,我們預計經濟復甦將會隨著疫苗接種工作的持續而穩健發展,且企業和家庭也已經適應了新情況,降低了此類封鎖的經濟損失。採購經理人指數仍然存在持續強勁的擴張步伐。

鑑於宏觀經濟基本穩定,加上全球流動性充裕,我們對於亞洲公司債的基本面和風險偏好不變。我們注意到,中國政府努力控制房地產業槓桿,以及近期對科技巨頭和民間教育產業的打擊導致拋售壓力和波動。然而,我們認為最近的監管行動反映了政府推動更多社會平等和解決教育、醫療和居住成本的問題。這些並非在削弱特定公司或引發市場系統性風險。

此外,中國當局對貨幣和財政政策的寬鬆立場,反映了其提供有針對性的支持和防止經濟硬著陸;在7月的政治局會議上,政府承諾在2021年下半年加快使用地方政府債券,用於增加對基礎設施和社會的投資。

我們認為,對恆大的持續擔憂將在短期內持續影響投資者情緒,而2022年上半年即將到期的債券將導致再融資風險,需要持續關注信用分化情況。也就是說,隨著上個月中國高收益房地產債券收益率升至至2020年3月以來的最高水準,我們認為受到政府房地產去槓桿化措施的風險已被市場反應。

鑑於上述情況,我們適度地加碼了一些我們認為價值具吸引力的中國房地產與金融債券。同時,中國房地產中,由於對於流動性和融資渠道的審查,我們可能還會考慮替換可能受到不利影響的標的

 
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