【亞洲高收益債券】2021年5月基金評論

市場總覽:

五月份,受到債券利差支撐以及美國利率小幅走低,亞洲美元計價債券市場表現相對穩定。在此環境下,摩根亞洲高收益債指數上漲0.81%。

美國公債殖利率連續第二個月走低,由於美國的整體消息喜憂參半,兩年期與十年期公債殖利率分別下降 2 個基點和 3 個基點。上月初發布的 4 月份就業報告不如預期,非農就業人口增加26.6萬人,遠低於彭博預期的100萬個新工作崗位;另一方面,美國4月份消費者物價指數(CPI)年增4.2%,高於市場預期並創下自 2009 年以來的新高。因此,美國聯準會 (FED) 4 月會議紀要也透露幾位官員開始願意討論調整央行購債的問題,一度使公債殖利率攀升。然而,聯準會隨後解釋目前通漲問題為過度反應且為短期的,也降低市場疑慮使公債殖利率回落。

儘管美國經濟數據不如預期,然而全球性的經濟復甦似乎不受影響。亞洲的製造業活動仍然活躍,採購經理人指數(PMI)持續上升顯示亞洲多數國家受益於國際貿易與強勁的外部需求。但部分亞洲國家再度遭受新冠疫情侵擾,造成經濟活動的收緊,也讓這些地區的經濟前景變得混亂。

在受到正反兩面消息影響下,亞洲國家的信用利差在本月大多持平,得益於更高的應計收入,高收益債券表現優於投資級債券。其中,斯里蘭卡主權債自 3 月以來表現優異;而隨著經濟復甦使大宗商品價格持續上漲,金屬和採礦業也都有較好的表現。相比之下,金融和博弈產業的表現落後於整體高收益市場。

儘管設法在5月實現了正報酬,然而與整體市場相比,亞洲房地產產業的表現仍較差。

基金總覽:

本月關鍵貢獻是選擇了印度非銀行金融公司,以及基礎設施開始發揮作用,因為印度債券在本月下旬COVID-19感染曲線逐漸平緩後再次出現增長現象。中國房地產行業的債券選擇,及零權重馬來西亞工業債券也有積極貢獻,雖然後者因審計問題的消息而大幅下跌。除此之外斯里蘭卡的適度加碼也對相對報酬有積極貢獻。此報酬有助於抵消中國金融板塊華融的小幅加碼帶來的負面影響。此外,香港債券的減碼也影響了相對表現。

年初至今,本基金表現遜於基準指標,且高收益債的表現差異很大。基金的表現不佳部分歸因於與中國地方政府發行債的曝險,因市場在國有企業違約增加的消息後對政府擔憂增加,市場因而承壓。四月份華融債券價格下跌時,基金有做部分加碼,但是持續的賣壓仍影響相關表現。然而,在中國和印度的房地產領域的正向證券選擇帶來的收益抵銷了負面影響。本基金也受益於其年初至今市場強勁反彈的斯里蘭卡主權債加碼,以及菲律賓的債券選擇。

未來展望:

年初至今發生了許多事件,對亞洲美元債市產生影響。雖然全球經濟復甦提升投資人的風險偏好,但大幅上升的美國公債殖利率使債券市場承壓。在亞洲,中國政府相關發行人以及最近的高收益房地產開發商的負面消息不斷,也導致了個別債券更大的分歧和波動。

儘管存在這些挑戰,但亞洲美元債市表現相對很好,因為市場沒有廣泛的拋售壓力和企業對新發行債券的剛性需求。展望未來,我們認為持續的全球復甦將繼續為亞洲債券發行人提供建設性的營運背景。全球經濟仍持續復甦,已開發國家如美國的良好經濟成長歸功於疫苗施打進展順利和支持性財政及貨幣政策。經濟活動回升刺激商品需求,也支持亞洲國家的製造業活動。強勁經濟表現也在亞洲房地產行業反映,該區房地產市場普遍走強。尤其是在中國,儘管針對房地產開發商的融資核准和購房者的房地產規則都採取了緊縮措施,但住宅房地產銷售和房價成長仍然強勁。我們希望能長期看待這些這些措施,推動更嚴格的市場紀律,雖然自這些規則實施以來,信用指標的改善已經從許多房地產開發商中看到。

但是,我們也注意到中國更嚴格的融資規則,例如「三條紅線」對中國房地產開發商的要求,可能會對實力較弱的開發商施加壓力,從而導致更高的市場特殊風險。綜上所述,我們持續在市場修正時尋找買點,然而,我們仍對中國債市小心謹慎,因為中國正在進行的政策調整導致特殊風險較高。此外,亞洲經濟復甦不一也會造成表現上的差異。

五月,有鑑於美國公債殖利率的回落,我們也減少以長天期類主權債部位來提升基金存續期間的策略。但我們也認為美國公債曲線反映了美國許多好消息,鑑於美國經濟強勁,我們認為大幅下跌的空間也將有限。

同時,我們繼續參與發行價值更高的新債券,而菲律賓公用事業曝險下降。

 
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