【亞洲高收益債券】2021年4月基金評論

市場總覽:

四月份,由於美國公債殖利率回落,固定收益市場表現回穩。在此環境下,摩根亞洲高收益債指數上漲1.26%。

四月份,美國十年期公債殖利率下降約11個基點至1.63%,因為債券交易員對一系列美國經濟數據優於預期的消息態度趨於平淡。在四月份美國聯準會公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議紀要中,聯準會證實經濟活動正在復甦,通膨壓力增加。聯準會表示會維持貨幣政策不後,投資人對貨幣政策轉變的疑慮降低。

在亞洲地區,經濟數據也顯示經濟正在復甦。亞洲國家的製造業活動依舊強勁,三月份亮眼的採購經理人指數(PMI)顯示國際貿易仍繼續支撐大多數亞洲國家工廠活動強力回彈。中國第一季GDP成長率表現良好,年增18.3%,雖然受到較低基期所帶動。

樂觀的總體市場環境支撐了亞洲高收益美元債市的表現,儘管中國高收益債券市場受到中國華融資產管理司(中國財政部掌握主要股權)之債券強力賣壓拖累,表現較平淡。賣壓主要起源於該公司無法按時在四月份揭露2020年報。

然而,中國高收益債券市場在四月底表現回穩,主要受到房地產債種(其表現優於整體債市)拉抬。

整體而言,斯里蘭卡主權債與類主權債本月表現優異,報酬率7.20%,主要受益於斯里蘭卡與國家開發銀行(China Development Bank)簽訂5億美元的貸款協議。

印尼的金屬、採礦與地產債表現也相當不錯。然而,香港未評級債券表現較差。

基金總覽:

四月份,中國房地產債種表現亮眼。此外,本基金加碼之印尼房地產、金屬與採礦債種與其選債也拉抬整體表現。

年初至今,本基金表現遜於基準指標,且高收益債的表現差異很大。四月份華融債券價格下跌時,基金有做部分加碼,然而持續的賣壓仍影響相關表現。然而,基金加碼斯里蘭卡主權債帶來正貢獻,該債種年初至今表現亮眼。

未來展望:

年初至今發生了許多事件,對亞洲債市產生影響。雖然全球經濟復甦提升投資人的風險偏好,但大幅上升的美國公債殖利率使債券市場承壓。最近,印度與許多亞洲國家的疫情再次爆發使市場擔憂增加,也顯現了全球經濟復甦不均的問題。

雖然近期負面消息較多,我們認為更為強勁的經濟狀況會拉抬亞洲公司的表現。全球經濟仍持續復甦,已開發國家如美國的良好經濟成長歸功於疫苗施打進展順利。儘管亞洲新冠疫情確診人數增加,我們不認為這會拖累全球經濟復甦進度,也不會出現去年經濟大幅衰退的狀況,因為公司對疫情有了較多準備,且相應的封鎖措施將有望控制疫情蔓延。

綜上所述,我們持續在市場修正時尋找買點。然而,我們仍對中國債市小心謹慎,因為儘管中國政府對金融體系中的債務有更嚴格的規範,有助增強市場信心與債券體質,不確定性而持續存在。此外,亞洲經濟復甦不一也會造成表現上的差異。

因此,我們會持續小心監控這些風險,且當我們認為近期的表現疲軟起因於過於擔憂基本面時,會有選擇性地加碼。

同時,我們也減少了高收益債的部位,特別是在印尼金屬和採礦債種,因為我們在近期的良好表現後獲利了結。

我們仍然看好中國高收益地產債,認為中國「三條紅線」措施與美元債供給減少將會支持其基本面。

 
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