【亞洲高收益債券】2021年3月基金評論

市場總覽:

全球通膨議題在3月份持續發酵,全球利率上升。美國利率上升影響亞洲債券市場,摩根亞洲高收益債指數在一個月內小幅下跌0.13%。

美國總統拜登簽署了1.9兆美元的新冠疫情援助法案,其中,數兆美元為改善基礎建設和氣候變遷,投資人認為通膨將持續升溫。未來五年通膨預期躍升至2008年以來最高水準。同時,十年期美國公債殖利率從去年3月份歷史低點0.31%大幅回升,今年3月份上升34個基點(較去年同期上升了83個基點)。第一季升至1.74%,為2020年1月以來最高水準。

亞洲國家逐步推出新冠肺炎疫苗的過程中,市場情緒樂觀,經濟數據整體而言是正向的。中國的主要經濟指標,例如工業生產和零售銷售在2021年前兩個月達到史無前例的30%年成長率。採購經理人指數也顯示製造業在亞洲多數地方持續擴張。

全球經濟成長的看法實際上支撐了風險情緒,亞洲美元債供應量相較上月回升(主要為投資級債),整體利差收斂,有助於緩衝美國利率上升所帶來的影響。

然而,受到新聞的影響,高收益債的表現有明顯的分歧。一方面,在斯里蘭卡宣布中國已批准與該國之間的100億元人民幣互換額度,以減輕其短期外部流動性限制後,斯里蘭卡主權債上漲。然而,由於部分房地產開發商的盈利意外下降,中國高收益房地產債表現不佳。此外,因擔憂特定公司信用狀況,印尼消費品和金屬、採礦公司表現疲軟。

基金總覽:

3月份,基金加碼中國高收益房地產債影響績效表現。中國當地政府債券持續面臨拋售壓力,然而,加碼斯里蘭卡短期主權債的獲利,以及增持在波動市場中相對具有防禦性的菲律賓公司債,緩解其他表現不佳的部位。

今年以來,高收益債的表現差異很大。基金表現不佳主要由於3月份負面新聞降低了投資人對中國高收益房地產債券的興趣,影響其表現。由於基金在中國高收益房地產債的增持,同時減持中國金融債,影響基金績效。此外,基金對一家中國地方政府相關的債券曝險,及印尼消費者和金屬、礦業公司的部位影響績效表現。然而,加碼斯里蘭卡主權債和菲律賓公司債皆帶來正貢獻。

未來展望:

一年前經濟活動出現史無前例的崩盤之後,近期在新冠疫苗接種和政策支持下,全球經濟強勁反彈。除經濟數據外,市場關注拜登政府最新的2兆美元基礎建設計劃的進展,雖然預計將在八年內推出,但該提案最終是否將以原形通過仍存在不確定性,因此這可能使市場樂觀情緒存在不確定性。

在這種環境下,隨著投資者衡量新冠疫情後經濟的實力,進而評估主要央行貨幣政策前景,美國利率的波動性仍然很高。在亞洲美元債券市場中,中國政府重新將重點放在債務管理上,引發投資人對政府支持國有企業和地方政府債的質疑,而更嚴格的融資規則也對體質較弱的公司債造成壓力。

儘管債券市場近期受到利空消息影響,但我們認為全球經濟復甦將進一步支撐亞洲債券的發展。預計整體違約率將保持在較低水準,且中國政府將繼續管理系統性風險的發生。

亞洲債券,特別是公司債,由於存續期間較短、殖利率較高,仍可能表現的較已開發市場好,然而,近期的疲軟表現,使其估值具吸引力。我們也認為,投資人已經反映了美國的利多消息,未來幾個月美國利率的上升可能會受到壓抑。

隨著中國“三條紅線”改革的實施,我們將汰弱留強,轉換中國房地產的持債。

此外,我們還參與了新債券的認購,包括印度可再生能源公司發行的債券,同時減少我們對部分高收益主權債的曝險。

 
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