【亞洲高收益債券】2020年12月基金評論

市場總覽:

12月份,市場風險情緒升溫,多數風險資產2020年皆為正報酬。風險情緒升溫、流動性佳持續支撐亞洲美元債券表現,尤其是亞洲高收益債券。本月,亞洲高收益債券指數上漲1.96%,全年報酬率為4.94%。

12月下旬市場出現較多消息,例如全球各地疫情感染率不斷攀升,以及變種新冠病毒的出現引發新的邊境封鎖,也因此各國家開始推出疫苗、美國通過了9,000億美元的財政刺激方案以及英國脫歐後的貿易協議也拉抬投資人的情緒。在貨幣政策方面,儘管主要央行於本月維持政策利率不變,但歐洲央行將其資產購買計劃擴大5,000億歐元至1.85兆歐元,並至少實行至2022年3月底。

儘管市場看漲,美國國債殖利率仍在區間內大幅波動,而長期美國國債殖利率存在一些上升壓力(本月份,10年期國債殖利率上升7個基點)。

高收益債因市場樂觀情緒,成為主要貢獻來源。多數區域的經濟數據表現良好也拉抬投資者的風險偏好情緒。從債種來看,印尼和印度的金屬與採礦公司因原物料價格上漲而帶來主要貢獻。然而,高收益主權債受斯里蘭卡主權債拖累而下跌。

基金總覽:

12月份,基金加碼中國高收益房地產公司帶來主要正貢獻,地產債為本月份中國表現最好的債種之一。正貢獻抵銷在印尼金屬與採礦公司的負面影響,基金小幅加碼斯里蘭卡主權債也拖累整體表現。

年初至今,基金表現主要受到3月疫情爆發影響經濟所拖累。基金加碼印尼高收益公司債和斯里蘭卡主權債帶來主要負貢獻,因為其在3月份面臨大幅修正。然而,這些市場的強勁反彈也讓損失逐步收斂。然而,基金在印尼房地產的部位仍影響績效。反觀,2020年中國房地產債種表現最佳,銷售的強烈回彈與流動性壓力降低皆激勵投資者信心。

未來展望:

整體而言,亞洲國家的疫情控制相對較佳,使得亞洲地區的經濟復甦較快,且違約率維持在可控的水準。經濟復甦理當於2021年隨著疫苗全球普及而加快,然而,實際而言,疫苗接種帶動的成長應於下半年才會發酵,也因此,財政和貨幣政策兩者可能將維持寬鬆,以應對仍然脆弱的經濟復甦。

有利的總體環境顯示亞洲債券將在2021年持續保持良好表現。大多數已開發市場低利率環境將激勵資金流入因防疫得宜而有較好成長前景的亞洲。

但是,債券利差已明顯收斂,而不均衡的復甦使較脆弱的債券發行者受到挑戰。因此,我們對估值較不具吸引力或之前發行量大的公司保持謹慎。

儘管如此,我們加碼中國房地產債、印尼房地產和商品債種,與印尼永續能源債種。

同時,我們也會在價格修正時,增加本地貨幣債的持有,如果美國公債殖利率超過我們的預期區間,我們亦可能拉長存續期間。

 
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