【亞洲債券】2020年12月基金評論

市場總覽:

12月份,市場風險情緒升溫,多數風險資產2020年皆為正報酬。風險情緒升溫、流動性佳持續支撐亞洲美元債券表現,摩根大通亞洲信用債券指數12月份上漲0.64%,2020年上漲6.33%。

12月下旬市場出現較多消息,例如全球各地疫情感染率不斷攀升,以及變種新冠病毒的出現引發新的邊境封鎖,也因此各國家開始推出疫苗、美國通過了9,000億美元的財政刺激方案以及英國脫歐後的貿易協議也拉抬投資人的情緒。在貨幣政策方面,儘管主要央行於本月維持政策利率不變,但歐洲央行將其資產購買計劃擴大5,000億歐元至1.85兆歐元,並至少實行至2022年3月底。

儘管市場看漲,美國國債殖利率仍在區間內大幅波動,而長期美國國債殖利率存在一些上升壓力(本月份,10年期國債殖利率上升7個基點)。

投資人樂觀情緒上升的情況之下,高收益債券表現較佳。亞洲地區經濟數據也支撐了投資者的風險偏好,各產業方面,在大宗商品價格上漲的推動下,印尼和印度的金屬和礦業公司表現突出。然而,高收益主權債因為斯里蘭卡主權債表現拖累而下跌。

鑑於12月份債券利差變動較小,投資級債券的表現相對落後。此外,有關美國政府擴大實體名單以將更多中國公司納入其貿易黑名單的消息,以及中國當局對阿里巴巴集團發起的反托拉斯調查,都對中國債券表現產生影響。此外,印尼主權債和準主權債也表現不佳。相比之下,印度和新加坡投資級公司債則表現良好。

基金總覽:

12月份,有鑑於高收益債表現較佳,基金加碼高收益債帶來主要正貢獻。特別是中國房地產高收益債,抵銷了加碼斯里蘭卡主權債所帶來的影響,斯里蘭卡主權債主要受標準普爾(S&P)降低其主權債評級影響而下跌。印尼公司債表現落後,以及基金較長的存續期間也對整體績效造成影響。

年初至今,由於美國利率大幅下降,基金維持較長的存續期間有利績效表現。以各類資產來看,加碼中國房地產高收益債為主要正貢獻,年初至今中國房地產業表現強勁,因房地產銷售大幅反彈,以及較佳流動性為投資人情緒帶來支撐。此外,基金加碼印尼類主權債、印度公用事業和金融債也推升基金績效。

但是,基金減碼韓國主權債和準主權中影響表現。印尼房地產和中國地方政府債券表現不佳也影響績效。

未來展望:

整體而言,亞洲國家的疫情控制相對較佳,使得亞洲地區的經濟復甦較快,且違約率維持在可控的水準。經濟復甦理當於2021年隨著疫苗全球普及而加快,然而,實際而言,疫苗接種帶動的成長應於下半年才會發酵,也因此,財政和貨幣政策兩者可能將維持寬鬆,以應對仍然脆弱的經濟復甦。

有利的總體環境顯示亞洲債券將在2021年持續保持良好表現。大多數已開發市場低利率環境將激勵資金流入因防疫得宜而有較好成長前景的亞洲。

但是,債券利差已明顯收斂,而不均衡的復甦使較脆弱的債券發行者受到挑戰。因此,我們對估值較不具吸引力或之前發行量大的公司保持謹慎。

我們將持續加碼高收益債,如果美國公債殖利率超過我們的預期區間,我們亦可能拉長存續期間。

 
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