【亞洲債券】2022年2月基金評論

市場總覽:

2月份,全球利率波動對全球債券市場構成壓力。對主要央行緊縮貨幣政策的擔憂以及俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的軍事衝突也抑制了投資者的風險偏好。在此背景下,摩根大通亞洲公司債指數在一個月內下跌2.2%,受美國利率上升和利差擴大的雙重拖累。

在歐洲央行行長等決策者發表了鷹派言論後,因對可能加快收緊貨幣的擔憂,全球債券的拋售在本月初加劇。在美國,優於預期的就業數據和美國四年來新高的通膨也引發了對通膨加劇的擔憂,使10年期美國公債(UST)殖利率達到2019年的最高水平。然而,因地緣政治的緊張局勢,央行的政策立場改變後殖利率部分下降。由於市場靜候俄烏衝突的最新進展,投資者尋找相對安全的債券和其他避險資產。一個月內,美國公債殖利率曲線趨平,10年期公債殖利率上升5個基點至1.8%,而2年期殖利率上升25個基點至1.4%。

美國利率上升導致亞洲美元公司債下跌,而避險環境也使亞洲公司債利差擴大。亞洲公司債遭拋售,遍及所有國家、評級和產業。然而,投資級債券的跌幅普遍較為收斂,而高收益債市繼續受到中國房地產產業疲軟的拖累。由於中國高收益房地產開發商財務困境的消息繼續抑制市場情緒,中國房地產產業再次成為主要落後者;整個產業也受到新屋銷售下滑的消息拖累。

儘管如此,最近幾週對該產業的政策寬鬆措施有所改善。據財新3月1日報導,1月中旬以來,中國15個省市放寬了購房要求。據當地媒體報導,多個城市(例如深圳和廣東)的銀行已經降低了抵押貸款利率,減少了抵押貸款首付,並加快了抵押貸款審批。在各種監管放鬆措施中,中國當局還讓房地產開發商更容易從託管賬戶裡的預售金中獲得現金。

除中國房地產產業外,其他表現不佳的產業包括高收益主權債券和澳門博弈產業。由於擔心俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突將導致其燃料和食品進口價格上漲,從而進一步影響其供需平衡,因此斯里蘭卡和巴基斯坦等高收益主權國家的表現落後。由於博弈產業收入復甦乏力,澳門博弈業也表現不佳,這提高了行業降評風險。

另一方面,金融、金屬和採礦以及基礎設施等產業更抗跌。儘管避險情緒有所上升,但本月發布的亞洲經濟數據表明該地區已開始復甦。印尼第四季度的國內生產總值(GDP)月增從前三個月的3.5%提升至5.0%。與此同時,泰國第四季度的GDP也優於預期,月增1.9%;使2021年的GDP成長率達到1.6%。儘管受到12月洪水的影響,馬來西亞第四季GDP仍月增3.6%。在截至12月的三個月中,印度GDP月增5.4%,這代表經濟回到了疫情前的水準之上。

基金總覽:

月內,雖然基金相對於基準指數偏長的存續期間影響了相對表現,但債券收益抵消了負面歸因。 按國家/產業劃分,本基金增持中國房地產產業,拖累了相對表現。此外,由於長期利率的波動導致選定的長天期金融債的一些拋售壓力。但本基金減持投資級主權債,尤其是菲律賓主權債,緩解了本月表現不佳的情況。

未來展望:

自俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭開始,世界各地的市場投資人似乎更關注對負成長的影響而不是通膨風險,降低他們對升息的預期和提升避險情緒。由於東歐的安全將成為全球市場的主要關注點,至少在短期內如此,而且有跡象表明金融狀況開始收緊,避險情緒可能會持續一段時間。

然而,在中國的促進經濟成長的政策起到緩衝作用下,俄烏衝突對亞洲的直接影響在短期內似乎相對有限。持續的緊張局勢將對供應和大宗商品價格造成壓力,進而對地區經濟成長產生不利影響。我們認為,Omicron疫情的緩解、伊朗大量的能源供應前景以及歐佩克國家和美國石油產量增加,會緩解部分影響。

此外,儘管大多數亞洲經濟體是大宗商品淨進口國,但迄今為止,亞洲公司債相對新興國家市場更加抗跌,2月份摩根亞洲公司債(JACI)利差擴大了約30個基點;而新興市場美元債的利差擴大了約為72-85個基點。亞洲美元債券表現較為穩定,可能是由於國內投資者比例較高、亞洲公司債的整體信用品質較好,以及亞洲與其他新興市場相比較遠離相關地緣政治風險。我們認為,這些因素應能使亞洲公司債的未來發展的相對抗跌。事實上,在俄羅斯金融資產被排除在主要指數之外後,亞洲可能會受益於從俄羅斯流出的資金。

對於本基金,我們維持對中國房地產產業的增持,但我們仍然優先選擇與國有(SOE)掛鉤的房地產標的,並選擇可以度過當前流動性緊縮且品質更好的民營企業。

 
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